5638 Canyon Forest Dr, Houston, TX 77088
4bd / 2ba · 2,500 sqft · built 1979 · Single Family (SFR)Analyzed Oct 25, 2026MX Group Partner$
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Scenario 1 — Flip
Hard money loan · sell at ARV after rehab
✅
PASSES FLIP
Min 20% ROI · 6-mo hold
61.7%
Flip ROI
Cash to First Close
$20,700
what you bring day 1
Net Profit
$20,473
Max Bid @ 20%
$194,757
$20,473 profit ÷ $33,202 total invested = 61.7%
Acquisition Event — First Close
Hard Money Loan — 9.99% Interest-Only
Loan Amount
$186,150
Purchase (95% LTV)
$172,900
Rehab (100%)
$13,250
Loan-to-ARV
70.2%
Monthly Interest
$1,550/mo
Down Payment5% of $182,000 purchase
$9,100+
Origination Fee1 pts on $186,150 loan
$2,500+
Closing Costs5% of purchase
$9,100=
Cash to First Close
$20,700Holding Period — 6 Months
HML Interest9.99% IO · $1,550/mo × 6$9,298
Property Taxes$125/mo × 6$747
Insurance$163/mo × 6$976
HOA$26/mo × 6$156
Total Holding Costs$11,177
Contingency Reserve10% of rehab — held, not at first close$1,325
Sale Event — Second Close
Sale Price (ARV)
$265,000−
HML Principal Payofffull IO loan balance
$186,150−
Closing Costs3.5% of sale price
$9,275−
Realtor Commission6% of sale price
$15,900=
Net Proceeds to You
$53,675Deal Summary
Net Proceeds at Closing
$53,675−
Cash to First Close
$20,700−
Holding Costs (6 mo)
$11,177−
Contingency Reserve
$1,325=
NET PROFIT
$20,473Max Bid by ROI Target
| ROI | Max Bid | vs Offer |
|---|---|---|
| 10% | $197,827 | ✓ ok |
| 15% | $196,281 | ✓ ok |
| 20% ← | $194,757 | ✓ ok |
| 25% | $193,254 | ✓ ok |
| 30% | $191,773 | ✓ ok |
Scenario 2 — HM→DSCR
Hard money @ 9.99% IO → DSCR refi · 75% ARV · 7.1% / 30yr
❌
FAILS DSCR
Min 1.30x · 7.1% / 30-yr DSCR · 75% of ARV
1.034x
DSCR
Monthly Cash Flow
$46/mo
Cash-on-Cash Yr 1
2.9%
$19,113 left in deal
Acquisition Event — First Close
Hard Money Loan — 9.99% Interest-Only
Loan Amount
$186,150
Purchase (95% LTV)
$172,900
Rehab (100%)
$13,250
Loan-to-ARV
70.2%
Monthly Interest
$1,550/mo
Down Payment5% of $182,000 purchase
$9,100+
Origination Fee1 pts on $186,150 loan
$2,500+
Closing Costs5% of purchase
$9,100=
Cash to First Close
$20,700Holding Period — 2 Months
HML Interest9.99% IO · $1,550/mo × 2$3,099
Property Taxes$125/mo × 2$249
Insurance$163/mo × 2$325
HOA$26/mo × 2$52
Total Holding Costs$3,726
Contingency Reserve10% of rehab — held, not at first close$1,325
DSCR Refinance — Second Close
DSCR Loan Proceeds75% of ARV · 7.1% / 30yr
$198,750−
HML Principal Payofffull IO loan balance
$186,150−
Origination Fee1 pts on $198,750
$1,988−
Closing Coststitle / appraisal / escrow
$3,975=
Cash Back to You
+$6,638Deal Summary
Cash to First Close
$20,700+
Holding Costs (2 mo)
$3,726+
Contingency Reserve
$1,325−
Cash Back at Refi
−$6,638=
Capital Left in Deal
$19,113Equity Position — Day 1 Post-Refi
ARV
$265,000−
DSCR Loan Balance
$198,750=
Equity in Property
$66,250 (25.0%)−
Capital Left in Deal
$19,113=
Value Created
$47,137$66,250 equity on $19,113 deployed = 3.5× equity leverage
Monthly Income & Expenses — Post-DSCR
Gross Rent
$1,926−
Property Taxes
$125−
Insurance
$163−
Maintenance (6% rent)
$116−
Management (6% rent)
$116−
HOA
$26=
OpEx Subtotal
$544=
Net Operating Income
$1,382−
DSCR P&I
$1,336/mo=
Net Cash Flow
$46/moDSCR Ratios — Cash-Out vs No Cash-Out vs DSCR=1.0
Cash-Out Refi
75% of ARV — full LTV
Loan Amount$198,750
Monthly P&I$1,336/mo
Net Cash Flow$46/mo
Cash Back at Refi+$6,638
DSCR
1.034x✗ Fail
Lender DSCR
1.168x✓ Pass
No Cash-Out
72.4% LTV — breakeven refi
Loan Amount$191,907
Monthly P&I$1,290/mo
Net Cash Flow$92/mo
Cash Back at Refi+$0
DSCR
1.071x✗ Fail
Lender DSCR
1.202x✓ Pass
DSCR = 1.00x
Not DSCR-constrained — the 75% ARV cash-out loan already clears 1.034xx.
Required Rent by DSCR Target
| Target | Rent Needed | vs Current |
|---|---|---|
| 1.00x | $1,874/mo | ✓ met |
| 1.10x | $2,025/mo | +$99 needed |
| 1.20x | $2,177/mo | +$251 needed |
| 1.30x ← | $2,329/mo | +$403 needed |
| 1.40x | $2,481/mo | +$555 needed |
Scenario 3 — Cash→DSCR
All-cash purchase → DSCR refi · 75% ARV · 7.1% / 30yr
❌
FAILS DSCR
Min 1.30x · 7.1% / 30-yr DSCR · 75% of ARV
1.034x
DSCR
Monthly Cash Flow
$46/mo
Cash-on-Cash Yr 1
4.1%
$13,514 left in deal
Acquisition Event — First Close
Purchase Price
$182,000+
Rehab Budget
$13,250+
Closing Costs5% of purchase
$9,100=
Total Cash to First Close
$204,350Holding Period — 2 Months
Property Taxes$125/mo × 2$249
Insurance$163/mo × 2$325
HOA$26/mo × 2$52
Total Holding Costs$626
Contingency Reserve10% of rehab — held, not at first close$1,325
DSCR Refinance — Second Close
DSCR Loan Proceeds75% of ARV · 7.1% / 30yr
$198,750−
Origination Fee1 pts on $198,750
$1,988−
Closing Coststitle / appraisal / escrow
$3,975=
Net Cash Recovered
$192,788Deal Summary
Total Cash to First Close
$204,350+
Holding Costs (2 mo)
$626+
Contingency Reserve
$1,325−
Net Cash Recovered at Refi
$192,788=
Capital Left in Deal
$13,514Equity Position — Day 1 Post-Refi
ARV
$265,000−
DSCR Loan Balance
$198,750=
Equity in Property
$66,250 (25.0%)−
Capital Left in Deal
$13,514=
Value Created
$52,736$66,250 equity on $13,514 deployed = 4.9× equity leverage
Monthly Income & Expenses — Post-DSCR
Gross Rent
$1,926−
Property Taxes
$125−
Insurance
$163−
Maintenance (6% rent)
$116−
Management (6% rent)
$116−
HOA
$26=
OpEx Subtotal
$544=
Net Operating Income
$1,382−
DSCR P&I
$1,336/mo=
Net Cash Flow
$46/moDSCR Ratios — Cash-Out vs No Cash-Out
Cash-Out Refi
75% of ARV — full LTV
Loan Amount$198,750
Monthly P&I$1,336/mo
Net Cash Flow$46/mo
Cash Still Required−$13,514
DSCR
1.034x✗ Fail
Lender DSCR
1.168x✓ Pass
No Cash-Out
75.0% LTV — capped short $13,514
Loan Amount$198,750
Monthly P&I$1,336/mo
Net Cash Flow$46/mo
Cash Still Required−$13,514
DSCR
1.034x✗ Fail
Lender DSCR
1.168x✓ Pass
Required Rent by DSCR Target
| Target | Rent Needed | vs Current |
|---|---|---|
| 1.00x | $1,874/mo | ✓ met |
| 1.10x | $2,025/mo | +$99 needed |
| 1.20x | $2,177/mo | +$251 needed |
| 1.30x ← | $2,329/mo | +$403 needed |
| 1.40x | $2,481/mo | +$555 needed |