4615 Colony Hills Dr, Sugar Land, TX 77479
4bd / 2ba · 2,851 sqft · built 1989 · Single Family (SFR)Analyzed Oct 25, 2026MX Group Partner$
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Scenario 1 — Flip
Hard money loan · sell at ARV after rehab
✅
PASSES FLIP
Min 20% ROI · 6-mo hold
27.1%
Flip ROI
Cash to First Close
$41,580
what you bring day 1
Net Profit
$20,351
Max Bid @ 20%
$381,938
$20,351 profit ÷ $75,219 total invested = 27.1%
Acquisition Event — First Close
Hard Money Loan — 9.99% Interest-Only
Loan Amount
$384,985
Purchase (95% LTV)
$358,435
Rehab (100%)
$26,550
Loan-to-ARV
72.5%
Monthly Interest
$3,205/mo
Down Payment5% of $377,300 purchase
$18,865+
Origination Fee1 pts on $384,985 loan
$3,850+
Closing Costs5% of purchase
$18,865=
Cash to First Close
$41,580Holding Period — 6 Months
HML Interest9.99% IO · $3,205/mo × 6$19,230
Property Taxes$666/mo × 6$3,993
Insurance$337/mo × 6$2,019
HOA$957/mo × 6$5,742
Total Holding Costs$30,984
Contingency Reserve10% of rehab — held, not at first close$2,655
Sale Event — Second Close
Sale Price (ARV)
$531,000−
HML Principal Payofffull IO loan balance
$384,985−
Closing Costs3.5% of sale price
$18,585−
Realtor Commission6% of sale price
$31,860=
Net Proceeds to You
$95,570Deal Summary
Net Proceeds at Closing
$95,570−
Cash to First Close
$41,580−
Holding Costs (6 mo)
$30,984−
Contingency Reserve
$2,655=
NET PROFIT
$20,351Max Bid by ROI Target
| ROI | Max Bid | vs Offer |
|---|---|---|
| 10% | $388,672 | ✓ ok |
| 15% | $385,281 | ✓ ok |
| 20% ← | $381,938 | ✓ ok |
| 25% | $378,642 | ✓ ok |
| 30% | $375,392 | −$1,908 |
Scenario 2 — HM→DSCR
Hard money @ 9.99% IO → DSCR refi · 75% ARV · 7.1% / 30yr
❌
FAILS DSCR
Min 1.30x · 7.1% / 30-yr DSCR · 75% of ARV
0.280x
DSCR
Monthly Cash Flow
−$1,926/mo
Cash-on-Cash Yr 1
-43.4%
$53,245 left in deal
Acquisition Event — First Close
Hard Money Loan — 9.99% Interest-Only
Loan Amount
$384,985
Purchase (95% LTV)
$358,435
Rehab (100%)
$26,550
Loan-to-ARV
72.5%
Monthly Interest
$3,205/mo
Down Payment5% of $377,300 purchase
$18,865+
Origination Fee1 pts on $384,985 loan
$3,850+
Closing Costs5% of purchase
$18,865=
Cash to First Close
$41,580Holding Period — 2 Months
HML Interest9.99% IO · $3,205/mo × 2$6,410
Property Taxes$666/mo × 2$1,331
Insurance$337/mo × 2$673
HOA$957/mo × 2$1,914
Total Holding Costs$10,328
Contingency Reserve10% of rehab — held, not at first close$2,655
DSCR Refinance — Second Close
DSCR Loan Proceeds75% of ARV · 7.1% / 30yr
$398,250−
HML Principal Payofffull IO loan balance
$384,985−
Origination Fee1 pts on $398,250
$3,983−
Closing Coststitle / appraisal / escrow
$7,965=
Cash Back to You
+$1,318Deal Summary
Cash to First Close
$41,580+
Holding Costs (2 mo)
$10,328+
Contingency Reserve
$2,655−
Cash Back at Refi
−$1,318=
Capital Left in Deal
$53,245Equity Position — Day 1 Post-Refi
ARV
$531,000−
DSCR Loan Balance
$398,250=
Equity in Property
$132,750 (25.0%)−
Capital Left in Deal
$53,245=
Value Created
$79,505$132,750 equity on $53,245 deployed = 2.5× equity leverage
Monthly Income & Expenses — Post-DSCR
Gross Rent
$3,079−
Property Taxes
$666−
Insurance
$337−
Maintenance (6% rent)
$185−
Management (6% rent)
$185−
HOA
$957=
OpEx Subtotal
$2,329=
Net Operating Income
$750−
DSCR P&I
$2,676/mo=
Net Cash Flow
−$1,926/moDSCR Ratios — Cash-Out vs No Cash-Out vs DSCR=1.0
Cash-Out Refi
75% of ARV — full LTV
Loan Amount$398,250
Monthly P&I$2,676/mo
Net Cash Flow−$1,926/mo
Cash Back at Refi+$1,318
DSCR
0.280x✗ Fail
Lender DSCR
0.664x✗ Fail
No Cash-Out
74.7% LTV — breakeven refi
Loan Amount$396,892
Monthly P&I$2,667/mo
Net Cash Flow−$1,917/mo
Cash Back at Refi+$0
DSCR
0.281x✗ Fail
Lender DSCR
0.666x✗ Fail
DSCR = 1.00x
21.0% LTV — still short $276,662
Loan Amount$111,673
Monthly P&I$750/mo
Net Cash Flow$0/mo
Cash Still Required−$276,662
DSCR
1.000x✗ Fail
Lender DSCR
1.136x✓ Pass
Required Rent by DSCR Target
| Target | Rent Needed | vs Current |
|---|---|---|
| 1.00x | $5,268/mo | +$2,189 needed |
| 1.10x | $5,572/mo | +$2,493 needed |
| 1.20x | $5,876/mo | +$2,797 needed |
| 1.30x ← | $6,180/mo | +$3,101 needed |
| 1.40x | $6,484/mo | +$3,405 needed |
Scenario 3 — Cash→DSCR
All-cash purchase → DSCR refi · 75% ARV · 7.1% / 30yr
❌
FAILS DSCR
Min 1.30x · 7.1% / 30-yr DSCR · 75% of ARV
0.280x
DSCR
Monthly Cash Flow
−$1,926/mo
Cash-on-Cash Yr 1
-53.8%
$42,986 left in deal
Acquisition Event — First Close
Purchase Price
$377,300+
Rehab Budget
$26,550+
Closing Costs5% of purchase
$18,865=
Total Cash to First Close
$422,715Holding Period — 2 Months
Property Taxes$666/mo × 2$1,331
Insurance$337/mo × 2$673
HOA$957/mo × 2$1,914
Total Holding Costs$3,918
Contingency Reserve10% of rehab — held, not at first close$2,655
DSCR Refinance — Second Close
DSCR Loan Proceeds75% of ARV · 7.1% / 30yr
$398,250−
Origination Fee1 pts on $398,250
$3,983−
Closing Coststitle / appraisal / escrow
$7,965=
Net Cash Recovered
$386,303Deal Summary
Total Cash to First Close
$422,715+
Holding Costs (2 mo)
$3,918+
Contingency Reserve
$2,655−
Net Cash Recovered at Refi
$386,303=
Capital Left in Deal
$42,986Equity Position — Day 1 Post-Refi
ARV
$531,000−
DSCR Loan Balance
$398,250=
Equity in Property
$132,750 (25.0%)−
Capital Left in Deal
$42,986=
Value Created
$89,764$132,750 equity on $42,986 deployed = 3.1× equity leverage
Monthly Income & Expenses — Post-DSCR
Gross Rent
$3,079−
Property Taxes
$666−
Insurance
$337−
Maintenance (6% rent)
$185−
Management (6% rent)
$185−
HOA
$957=
OpEx Subtotal
$2,329=
Net Operating Income
$750−
DSCR P&I
$2,676/mo=
Net Cash Flow
−$1,926/moDSCR Ratios — Cash-Out vs No Cash-Out
Cash-Out Refi
75% of ARV — full LTV
Loan Amount$398,250
Monthly P&I$2,676/mo
Net Cash Flow−$1,926/mo
Cash Still Required−$42,986
DSCR
0.280x✗ Fail
Lender DSCR
0.664x✗ Fail
No Cash-Out
75.0% LTV — capped short $42,986
Loan Amount$398,250
Monthly P&I$2,676/mo
Net Cash Flow−$1,926/mo
Cash Still Required−$42,986
DSCR
0.280x✗ Fail
Lender DSCR
0.664x✗ Fail
Required Rent by DSCR Target
| Target | Rent Needed | vs Current |
|---|---|---|
| 1.00x | $5,268/mo | +$2,189 needed |
| 1.10x | $5,572/mo | +$2,493 needed |
| 1.20x | $5,876/mo | +$2,797 needed |
| 1.30x ← | $6,180/mo | +$3,101 needed |
| 1.40x | $6,484/mo | +$3,405 needed |