4139 Deerbriar Run Dr, Houston, TX 77048
3bd / 1ba · 1,505 sqft · built 2007 · Single Family (SFR)Analyzed Oct 25, 2026MX Group Partner$
$
$
$
$
$
Scenario 1 — Flip
Hard money loan · sell at ARV after rehab
✅
PASSES FLIP
Min 20% ROI · 6-mo hold
30.6%
Flip ROI
Cash to First Close
$18,320
what you bring day 1
Net Profit
$9,254
Max Bid @ 20%
$161,926
$9,254 profit ÷ $30,266 total invested = 30.6%
Acquisition Event — First Close
Hard Money Loan — 9.99% Interest-Only
Loan Amount
$161,390
Purchase (95% LTV)
$150,290
Rehab (100%)
$11,100
Loan-to-ARV
72.7%
Monthly Interest
$1,344/mo
Down Payment5% of $158,200 purchase
$7,910+
Origination Fee1 pts on $161,390 loan
$2,500+
Closing Costs5% of purchase
$7,910=
Cash to First Close
$18,320Holding Period — 6 Months
HML Interest9.99% IO · $1,344/mo × 6$8,061
Property Taxes$275/mo × 6$1,653
Insurance$141/mo × 6$847
HOA$46/mo × 6$276
Total Holding Costs$10,836
Contingency Reserve10% of rehab — held, not at first close$1,110
Sale Event — Second Close
Sale Price (ARV)
$222,000−
HML Principal Payofffull IO loan balance
$161,390−
Closing Costs3.5% of sale price
$7,770−
Realtor Commission6% of sale price
$13,320=
Net Proceeds to You
$39,520Deal Summary
Net Proceeds at Closing
$39,520−
Cash to First Close
$18,320−
Holding Costs (6 mo)
$10,836−
Contingency Reserve
$1,110=
NET PROFIT
$9,254Max Bid by ROI Target
| ROI | Max Bid | vs Offer |
|---|---|---|
| 10% | $164,584 | ✓ ok |
| 15% | $163,245 | ✓ ok |
| 20% ← | $161,926 | ✓ ok |
| 25% | $160,625 | ✓ ok |
| 30% | $159,342 | ✓ ok |
Scenario 2 — HM→DSCR
Hard money @ 9.99% IO → DSCR refi · 75% ARV · 7.1% / 30yr
❌
FAILS DSCR
Min 1.30x · 7.1% / 30-yr DSCR · 75% of ARV
0.974x
DSCR
Monthly Cash Flow
−$29/mo
Cash-on-Cash Yr 1
-1.5%
$22,927 left in deal
Acquisition Event — First Close
Hard Money Loan — 9.99% Interest-Only
Loan Amount
$161,390
Purchase (95% LTV)
$150,290
Rehab (100%)
$11,100
Loan-to-ARV
72.7%
Monthly Interest
$1,344/mo
Down Payment5% of $158,200 purchase
$7,910+
Origination Fee1 pts on $161,390 loan
$2,500+
Closing Costs5% of purchase
$7,910=
Cash to First Close
$18,320Holding Period — 2 Months
HML Interest9.99% IO · $1,344/mo × 2$2,687
Property Taxes$275/mo × 2$551
Insurance$141/mo × 2$282
HOA$46/mo × 2$92
Total Holding Costs$3,612
Contingency Reserve10% of rehab — held, not at first close$1,110
DSCR Refinance — Second Close
DSCR Loan Proceeds75% of ARV · 7.1% / 30yr
$166,500−
HML Principal Payofffull IO loan balance
$161,390−
Origination Fee1 pts on $166,500
$1,665−
Closing Coststitle / appraisal / escrow
$3,330=
Cash Back to You
+$115Deal Summary
Cash to First Close
$18,320+
Holding Costs (2 mo)
$3,612+
Contingency Reserve
$1,110−
Cash Back at Refi
−$115=
Capital Left in Deal
$22,927Equity Position — Day 1 Post-Refi
ARV
$222,000−
DSCR Loan Balance
$166,500=
Equity in Property
$55,500 (25.0%)−
Capital Left in Deal
$22,927=
Value Created
$32,573$55,500 equity on $22,927 deployed = 2.4× equity leverage
Monthly Income & Expenses — Post-DSCR
Gross Rent
$1,764−
Property Taxes
$275−
Insurance
$141−
Maintenance (6% rent)
$106−
Management (6% rent)
$106−
HOA
$46=
OpEx Subtotal
$674=
Net Operating Income
$1,090−
DSCR P&I
$1,119/mo=
Net Cash Flow
−$29/moDSCR Ratios — Cash-Out vs No Cash-Out vs DSCR=1.0
Cash-Out Refi
75% of ARV — full LTV
Loan Amount$166,500
Monthly P&I$1,119/mo
Net Cash Flow−$29/mo
Cash Back at Refi+$115
DSCR
0.974x✗ Fail
Lender DSCR
1.115x✓ Pass
No Cash-Out
74.9% LTV — breakeven refi
Loan Amount$166,381
Monthly P&I$1,118/mo
Net Cash Flow−$28/mo
Cash Back at Refi+$0
DSCR
0.975x✗ Fail
Lender DSCR
1.116x✓ Pass
DSCR = 1.00x
73.0% LTV — still short $4,087
Loan Amount$162,168
Monthly P&I$1,090/mo
Net Cash Flow−$0/mo
Cash Still Required−$4,087
DSCR
1.000x✗ Fail
Lender DSCR
1.136x✓ Pass
Required Rent by DSCR Target
| Target | Rent Needed | vs Current |
|---|---|---|
| 1.00x | $1,797/mo | +$33 needed |
| 1.10x | $1,924/mo | +$160 needed |
| 1.20x | $2,051/mo | +$287 needed |
| 1.30x ← | $2,179/mo | +$415 needed |
| 1.40x | $2,306/mo | +$542 needed |
Scenario 3 — Cash→DSCR
All-cash purchase → DSCR refi · 75% ARV · 7.1% / 30yr
❌
FAILS DSCR
Min 1.30x · 7.1% / 30-yr DSCR · 75% of ARV
0.974x
DSCR
Monthly Cash Flow
−$29/mo
Cash-on-Cash Yr 1
-2.0%
$17,740 left in deal
Acquisition Event — First Close
Purchase Price
$158,200+
Rehab Budget
$11,100+
Closing Costs5% of purchase
$7,910=
Total Cash to First Close
$177,210Holding Period — 2 Months
Property Taxes$275/mo × 2$551
Insurance$141/mo × 2$282
HOA$46/mo × 2$92
Total Holding Costs$925
Contingency Reserve10% of rehab — held, not at first close$1,110
DSCR Refinance — Second Close
DSCR Loan Proceeds75% of ARV · 7.1% / 30yr
$166,500−
Origination Fee1 pts on $166,500
$1,665−
Closing Coststitle / appraisal / escrow
$3,330=
Net Cash Recovered
$161,505Deal Summary
Total Cash to First Close
$177,210+
Holding Costs (2 mo)
$925+
Contingency Reserve
$1,110−
Net Cash Recovered at Refi
$161,505=
Capital Left in Deal
$17,740Equity Position — Day 1 Post-Refi
ARV
$222,000−
DSCR Loan Balance
$166,500=
Equity in Property
$55,500 (25.0%)−
Capital Left in Deal
$17,740=
Value Created
$37,760$55,500 equity on $17,740 deployed = 3.1× equity leverage
Monthly Income & Expenses — Post-DSCR
Gross Rent
$1,764−
Property Taxes
$275−
Insurance
$141−
Maintenance (6% rent)
$106−
Management (6% rent)
$106−
HOA
$46=
OpEx Subtotal
$674=
Net Operating Income
$1,090−
DSCR P&I
$1,119/mo=
Net Cash Flow
−$29/moDSCR Ratios — Cash-Out vs No Cash-Out
Cash-Out Refi
75% of ARV — full LTV
Loan Amount$166,500
Monthly P&I$1,119/mo
Net Cash Flow−$29/mo
Cash Still Required−$17,740
DSCR
0.974x✗ Fail
Lender DSCR
1.115x✓ Pass
No Cash-Out
75.0% LTV — capped short $17,740
Loan Amount$166,500
Monthly P&I$1,119/mo
Net Cash Flow−$29/mo
Cash Still Required−$17,740
DSCR
0.974x✗ Fail
Lender DSCR
1.115x✓ Pass
Required Rent by DSCR Target
| Target | Rent Needed | vs Current |
|---|---|---|
| 1.00x | $1,797/mo | +$33 needed |
| 1.10x | $1,924/mo | +$160 needed |
| 1.20x | $2,051/mo | +$287 needed |
| 1.30x ← | $2,179/mo | +$415 needed |
| 1.40x | $2,306/mo | +$542 needed |