4123 Flagstone Pine Ln, Spring, TX 77386
5bd / 5.5ba · 4,368 sqft · built 2017 · Single Family (SFR)Analyzed Oct 25, 2026MX Group Partner$
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Scenario 1 — Flip
Hard money loan · sell at ARV after rehab
✅
PASSES FLIP
Min 20% ROI · 6-mo hold
34.7%
Flip ROI
Cash to First Close
$69,350
what you bring day 1
Net Profit
$40,457
Max Bid @ 20%
$644,262
$40,457 profit ÷ $116,673 total invested = 34.7%
Acquisition Event — First Close
Hard Money Loan — 9.99% Interest-Only
Loan Amount
$641,985
Purchase (95% LTV)
$597,835
Rehab (100%)
$44,150
Loan-to-ARV
72.7%
Monthly Interest
$5,345/mo
Down Payment5% of $629,300 purchase
$31,465+
Origination Fee1 pts on $641,985 loan
$6,420+
Closing Costs5% of purchase
$31,465=
Cash to First Close
$69,350Holding Period — 6 Months
HML Interest9.99% IO · $5,345/mo × 6$32,067
Property Taxes$1,115/mo × 6$6,688
Insurance$561/mo × 6$3,367
HOA$131/mo × 6$786
Total Holding Costs$42,908
Contingency Reserve10% of rehab — held, not at first close$4,415
Sale Event — Second Close
Sale Price (ARV)
$883,000−
HML Principal Payofffull IO loan balance
$641,985−
Closing Costs3.5% of sale price
$30,905−
Realtor Commission6% of sale price
$52,980=
Net Proceeds to You
$157,130Deal Summary
Net Proceeds at Closing
$157,130−
Cash to First Close
$69,350−
Holding Costs (6 mo)
$42,908−
Contingency Reserve
$4,415=
NET PROFIT
$40,457Max Bid by ROI Target
| ROI | Max Bid | vs Offer |
|---|---|---|
| 10% | $654,819 | ✓ ok |
| 15% | $649,503 | ✓ ok |
| 20% ← | $644,262 | ✓ ok |
| 25% | $639,095 | ✓ ok |
| 30% | $634,000 | ✓ ok |
Scenario 2 — HM→DSCR
Hard money @ 9.99% IO → DSCR refi · 75% ARV · 7.1% / 30yr
❌
FAILS DSCR
Min 1.30x · 7.1% / 30-yr DSCR · 75% of ARV
0.335x
DSCR
Monthly Cash Flow
−$2,960/mo
Cash-on-Cash Yr 1
-40.5%
$87,670 left in deal
Acquisition Event — First Close
Hard Money Loan — 9.99% Interest-Only
Loan Amount
$641,985
Purchase (95% LTV)
$597,835
Rehab (100%)
$44,150
Loan-to-ARV
72.7%
Monthly Interest
$5,345/mo
Down Payment5% of $629,300 purchase
$31,465+
Origination Fee1 pts on $641,985 loan
$6,420+
Closing Costs5% of purchase
$31,465=
Cash to First Close
$69,350Holding Period — 2 Months
HML Interest9.99% IO · $5,345/mo × 2$10,689
Property Taxes$1,115/mo × 2$2,229
Insurance$561/mo × 2$1,122
HOA$131/mo × 2$262
Total Holding Costs$14,303
Contingency Reserve10% of rehab — held, not at first close$4,415
DSCR Refinance — Second Close
DSCR Loan Proceeds75% of ARV · 7.1% / 30yr
$662,250−
HML Principal Payofffull IO loan balance
$641,985−
Origination Fee1 pts on $662,250
$6,623−
Closing Coststitle / appraisal / escrow
$13,245=
Cash Back to You
+$398Deal Summary
Cash to First Close
$69,350+
Holding Costs (2 mo)
$14,303+
Contingency Reserve
$4,415−
Cash Back at Refi
−$398=
Capital Left in Deal
$87,670Equity Position — Day 1 Post-Refi
ARV
$883,000−
DSCR Loan Balance
$662,250=
Equity in Property
$220,750 (25.0%)−
Capital Left in Deal
$87,670=
Value Created
$133,080$220,750 equity on $87,670 deployed = 2.5× equity leverage
Monthly Income & Expenses — Post-DSCR
Gross Rent
$3,747−
Property Taxes
$1,115−
Insurance
$561−
Maintenance (6% rent)
$225−
Management (6% rent)
$225−
HOA
$131=
OpEx Subtotal
$2,257=
Net Operating Income
$1,490−
DSCR P&I
$4,451/mo=
Net Cash Flow
−$2,960/moDSCR Ratios — Cash-Out vs No Cash-Out vs DSCR=1.0
Cash-Out Refi
75% of ARV — full LTV
Loan Amount$662,250
Monthly P&I$4,451/mo
Net Cash Flow−$2,960/mo
Cash Back at Refi+$398
DSCR
0.335x✗ Fail
Lender DSCR
0.599x✗ Fail
No Cash-Out
75.0% LTV — breakeven refi
Loan Amount$661,840
Monthly P&I$4,448/mo
Net Cash Flow−$2,957/mo
Cash Back at Refi+$0
DSCR
0.335x✗ Fail
Lender DSCR
0.599x✗ Fail
DSCR = 1.00x
25.1% LTV — still short $426,851
Loan Amount$221,788
Monthly P&I$1,490/mo
Net Cash Flow$0/mo
Cash Still Required−$426,851
DSCR
1.000x✗ Fail
Lender DSCR
1.136x✓ Pass
Required Rent by DSCR Target
| Target | Rent Needed | vs Current |
|---|---|---|
| 1.00x | $7,111/mo | +$3,364 needed |
| 1.10x | $7,616/mo | +$3,869 needed |
| 1.20x | $8,122/mo | +$4,375 needed |
| 1.30x ← | $8,628/mo | +$4,881 needed |
| 1.40x | $9,134/mo | +$5,387 needed |
Scenario 3 — Cash→DSCR
All-cash purchase → DSCR refi · 75% ARV · 7.1% / 30yr
❌
FAILS DSCR
Min 1.30x · 7.1% / 30-yr DSCR · 75% of ARV
0.335x
DSCR
Monthly Cash Flow
−$2,960/mo
Cash-on-Cash Yr 1
-50.3%
$70,561 left in deal
Acquisition Event — First Close
Purchase Price
$629,300+
Rehab Budget
$44,150+
Closing Costs5% of purchase
$31,465=
Total Cash to First Close
$704,915Holding Period — 2 Months
Property Taxes$1,115/mo × 2$2,229
Insurance$561/mo × 2$1,122
HOA$131/mo × 2$262
Total Holding Costs$3,614
Contingency Reserve10% of rehab — held, not at first close$4,415
DSCR Refinance — Second Close
DSCR Loan Proceeds75% of ARV · 7.1% / 30yr
$662,250−
Origination Fee1 pts on $662,250
$6,623−
Closing Coststitle / appraisal / escrow
$13,245=
Net Cash Recovered
$642,383Deal Summary
Total Cash to First Close
$704,915+
Holding Costs (2 mo)
$3,614+
Contingency Reserve
$4,415−
Net Cash Recovered at Refi
$642,383=
Capital Left in Deal
$70,561Equity Position — Day 1 Post-Refi
ARV
$883,000−
DSCR Loan Balance
$662,250=
Equity in Property
$220,750 (25.0%)−
Capital Left in Deal
$70,561=
Value Created
$150,189$220,750 equity on $70,561 deployed = 3.1× equity leverage
Monthly Income & Expenses — Post-DSCR
Gross Rent
$3,747−
Property Taxes
$1,115−
Insurance
$561−
Maintenance (6% rent)
$225−
Management (6% rent)
$225−
HOA
$131=
OpEx Subtotal
$2,257=
Net Operating Income
$1,490−
DSCR P&I
$4,451/mo=
Net Cash Flow
−$2,960/moDSCR Ratios — Cash-Out vs No Cash-Out
Cash-Out Refi
75% of ARV — full LTV
Loan Amount$662,250
Monthly P&I$4,451/mo
Net Cash Flow−$2,960/mo
Cash Still Required−$70,561
DSCR
0.335x✗ Fail
Lender DSCR
0.599x✗ Fail
No Cash-Out
75.0% LTV — capped short $70,561
Loan Amount$662,250
Monthly P&I$4,451/mo
Net Cash Flow−$2,960/mo
Cash Still Required−$70,561
DSCR
0.335x✗ Fail
Lender DSCR
0.599x✗ Fail
Required Rent by DSCR Target
| Target | Rent Needed | vs Current |
|---|---|---|
| 1.00x | $7,111/mo | +$3,364 needed |
| 1.10x | $7,616/mo | +$3,869 needed |
| 1.20x | $8,122/mo | +$4,375 needed |
| 1.30x ← | $8,628/mo | +$4,881 needed |
| 1.40x | $9,134/mo | +$5,387 needed |