3210 Falling Brook Dr, Kingwood, TX 77345
4bd / 2ba · 2,332 sqft · built 1981 · Single Family (SFR)Analyzed Oct 25, 2026MX Group Partner$
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Scenario 1 — Flip
Hard money loan · sell at ARV after rehab
❌
FAILS FLIP
Min 20% ROI · 6-mo hold
14.5%
Flip ROI
Cash to First Close
$23,990
what you bring day 1
Net Profit
$5,993
Max Bid @ 20%
$213,259
$5,993 profit ÷ $41,222 total invested = 14.5%
Acquisition Event — First Close
Hard Money Loan — 9.99% Interest-Only
Loan Amount
$218,855
Purchase (95% LTV)
$204,155
Rehab (100%)
$14,700
Loan-to-ARV
74.4%
Monthly Interest
$1,822/mo
Down Payment5% of $214,900 purchase
$10,745+
Origination Fee1 pts on $218,855 loan
$2,500+
Closing Costs5% of purchase
$10,745=
Cash to First Close
$23,990Holding Period — 6 Months
HML Interest9.99% IO · $1,822/mo × 6$10,932
Property Taxes$587/mo × 6$3,520
Insurance$191/mo × 6$1,148
HOA$27/mo × 6$162
Total Holding Costs$15,762
Contingency Reserve10% of rehab — held, not at first close$1,470
Sale Event — Second Close
Sale Price (ARV)
$294,000−
HML Principal Payofffull IO loan balance
$218,855−
Closing Costs3.5% of sale price
$10,290−
Realtor Commission6% of sale price
$17,640=
Net Proceeds to You
$47,215Deal Summary
Net Proceeds at Closing
$47,215−
Cash to First Close
$23,990−
Holding Costs (6 mo)
$15,762−
Contingency Reserve
$1,470=
NET PROFIT
$5,993Max Bid by ROI Target
| ROI | Max Bid | vs Offer |
|---|---|---|
| 10% | $216,862 | ✓ ok |
| 15% | $215,048 | ✓ ok |
| 20% ← | $213,259 | −$1,641 |
| 25% | $211,496 | −$3,404 |
| 30% | $209,757 | −$5,143 |
Scenario 2 — HM→DSCR
Hard money @ 9.99% IO → DSCR refi · 75% ARV · 7.1% / 30yr
❌
FAILS DSCR
Min 1.30x · 7.1% / 30-yr DSCR · 75% of ARV
0.783x
DSCR
Monthly Cash Flow
−$321/mo
Cash-on-Cash Yr 1
-10.8%
$35,684 left in deal
Acquisition Event — First Close
Hard Money Loan — 9.99% Interest-Only
Loan Amount
$218,855
Purchase (95% LTV)
$204,155
Rehab (100%)
$14,700
Loan-to-ARV
74.4%
Monthly Interest
$1,822/mo
Down Payment5% of $214,900 purchase
$10,745+
Origination Fee1 pts on $218,855 loan
$2,500+
Closing Costs5% of purchase
$10,745=
Cash to First Close
$23,990Holding Period — 2 Months
HML Interest9.99% IO · $1,822/mo × 2$3,644
Property Taxes$587/mo × 2$1,173
Insurance$191/mo × 2$383
HOA$27/mo × 2$54
Total Holding Costs$5,254
Contingency Reserve10% of rehab — held, not at first close$1,470
DSCR Refinance — Second Close
DSCR Loan Proceeds75% of ARV · 7.1% / 30yr
$220,500−
HML Principal Payofffull IO loan balance
$218,855−
Origination Fee1 pts on $220,500
$2,205−
Closing Coststitle / appraisal / escrow
$4,410=
Cash to Bring to Close
−$4,970Deal Summary
Cash to First Close
$23,990+
Holding Costs (2 mo)
$5,254+
Contingency Reserve
$1,470−
Cash to Bring at Refi
+$4,970=
Capital Left in Deal
$35,684Equity Position — Day 1 Post-Refi
ARV
$294,000−
DSCR Loan Balance
$220,500=
Equity in Property
$73,500 (25.0%)−
Capital Left in Deal
$35,684=
Value Created
$37,816$73,500 equity on $35,684 deployed = 2.1× equity leverage
Monthly Income & Expenses — Post-DSCR
Gross Rent
$2,234−
Property Taxes
$587−
Insurance
$191−
Maintenance (6% rent)
$134−
Management (6% rent)
$134−
HOA
$27=
OpEx Subtotal
$1,073=
Net Operating Income
$1,161−
DSCR P&I
$1,482/mo=
Net Cash Flow
−$321/moDSCR Ratios — Cash-Out vs No Cash-Out vs DSCR=1.0
Cash-Out Refi
75% of ARV — full LTV
Loan Amount$220,500
Monthly P&I$1,482/mo
Net Cash Flow−$321/mo
Cash Still Required−$4,970
DSCR
0.783x✗ Fail
Lender DSCR
0.977x✗ Fail
No Cash-Out
75.0% LTV — capped short $4,970
Loan Amount$220,500
Monthly P&I$1,482/mo
Net Cash Flow−$321/mo
Cash Still Required−$4,970
DSCR
0.783x✗ Fail
Lender DSCR
0.977x✗ Fail
DSCR = 1.00x
58.8% LTV — still short $51,290
Loan Amount$172,748
Monthly P&I$1,161/mo
Net Cash Flow$0/mo
Cash Still Required−$51,290
DSCR
1.000x✗ Fail
Lender DSCR
1.136x✓ Pass
Required Rent by DSCR Target
| Target | Rent Needed | vs Current |
|---|---|---|
| 1.00x | $2,599/mo | +$365 needed |
| 1.10x | $2,767/mo | +$533 needed |
| 1.20x | $2,935/mo | +$701 needed |
| 1.30x ← | $3,104/mo | +$870 needed |
| 1.40x | $3,272/mo | +$1,038 needed |
Scenario 3 — Cash→DSCR
All-cash purchase → DSCR refi · 75% ARV · 7.1% / 30yr
❌
FAILS DSCR
Min 1.30x · 7.1% / 30-yr DSCR · 75% of ARV
0.783x
DSCR
Monthly Cash Flow
−$321/mo
Cash-on-Cash Yr 1
-13.0%
$29,540 left in deal
Acquisition Event — First Close
Purchase Price
$214,900+
Rehab Budget
$14,700+
Closing Costs5% of purchase
$10,745=
Total Cash to First Close
$240,345Holding Period — 2 Months
Property Taxes$587/mo × 2$1,173
Insurance$191/mo × 2$383
HOA$27/mo × 2$54
Total Holding Costs$1,610
Contingency Reserve10% of rehab — held, not at first close$1,470
DSCR Refinance — Second Close
DSCR Loan Proceeds75% of ARV · 7.1% / 30yr
$220,500−
Origination Fee1 pts on $220,500
$2,205−
Closing Coststitle / appraisal / escrow
$4,410=
Net Cash Recovered
$213,885Deal Summary
Total Cash to First Close
$240,345+
Holding Costs (2 mo)
$1,610+
Contingency Reserve
$1,470−
Net Cash Recovered at Refi
$213,885=
Capital Left in Deal
$29,540Equity Position — Day 1 Post-Refi
ARV
$294,000−
DSCR Loan Balance
$220,500=
Equity in Property
$73,500 (25.0%)−
Capital Left in Deal
$29,540=
Value Created
$43,960$73,500 equity on $29,540 deployed = 2.5× equity leverage
Monthly Income & Expenses — Post-DSCR
Gross Rent
$2,234−
Property Taxes
$587−
Insurance
$191−
Maintenance (6% rent)
$134−
Management (6% rent)
$134−
HOA
$27=
OpEx Subtotal
$1,073=
Net Operating Income
$1,161−
DSCR P&I
$1,482/mo=
Net Cash Flow
−$321/moDSCR Ratios — Cash-Out vs No Cash-Out
Cash-Out Refi
75% of ARV — full LTV
Loan Amount$220,500
Monthly P&I$1,482/mo
Net Cash Flow−$321/mo
Cash Still Required−$29,540
DSCR
0.783x✗ Fail
Lender DSCR
0.977x✗ Fail
No Cash-Out
75.0% LTV — capped short $29,540
Loan Amount$220,500
Monthly P&I$1,482/mo
Net Cash Flow−$321/mo
Cash Still Required−$29,540
DSCR
0.783x✗ Fail
Lender DSCR
0.977x✗ Fail
Required Rent by DSCR Target
| Target | Rent Needed | vs Current |
|---|---|---|
| 1.00x | $2,599/mo | +$365 needed |
| 1.10x | $2,767/mo | +$533 needed |
| 1.20x | $2,935/mo | +$701 needed |
| 1.30x ← | $3,104/mo | +$870 needed |
| 1.40x | $3,272/mo | +$1,038 needed |