301 Forest Way, Conroe, TX 77304
3,535 sqft · built 1965 · Single Family (SFR)Analyzed Oct 25, 2026MX Group Partner$
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Scenario 1 — Flip
Hard money loan · sell at ARV after rehab
✅
PASSES FLIP
Min 20% ROI · 6-mo hold
27.8%
Flip ROI
Cash to First Close
$28,926
what you bring day 1
Net Profit
$13,467
Max Bid @ 20%
$265,813
$13,467 profit ÷ $48,378 total invested = 27.8%
Acquisition Event — First Close
Hard Money Loan — 9.99% Interest-Only
Loan Amount
$267,575
Purchase (95% LTV)
$249,375
Rehab (100%)
$18,200
Loan-to-ARV
73.5%
Monthly Interest
$2,228/mo
Down Payment5% of $262,500 purchase
$13,125+
Origination Fee1 pts on $267,575 loan
$2,676+
Closing Costs5% of purchase
$13,125=
Cash to First Close
$28,926Holding Period — 6 Months
HML Interest9.99% IO · $2,228/mo × 6$13,365
Property Taxes$477/mo × 6$2,864
Insurance$234/mo × 6$1,404
Total Holding Costs$17,632
Contingency Reserve10% of rehab — held, not at first close$1,820
Sale Event — Second Close
Sale Price (ARV)
$364,000−
HML Principal Payofffull IO loan balance
$267,575−
Closing Costs3.5% of sale price
$12,740−
Realtor Commission6% of sale price
$21,840=
Net Proceeds to You
$61,845Deal Summary
Net Proceeds at Closing
$61,845−
Cash to First Close
$28,926−
Holding Costs (6 mo)
$17,632−
Contingency Reserve
$1,820=
NET PROFIT
$13,467Max Bid by ROI Target
| ROI | Max Bid | vs Offer |
|---|---|---|
| 10% | $270,149 | ✓ ok |
| 15% | $267,966 | ✓ ok |
| 20% ← | $265,813 | ✓ ok |
| 25% | $263,691 | ✓ ok |
| 30% | $261,598 | −$902 |
Scenario 2 — HM→DSCR
Hard money @ 9.99% IO → DSCR refi · 75% ARV · 7.1% / 30yr
❌
FAILS DSCR
Min 1.30x · 7.1% / 30-yr DSCR · 75% of ARV
0.794x
DSCR
Monthly Cash Flow
−$377/mo
Cash-on-Cash Yr 1
-11.5%
$39,388 left in deal
Acquisition Event — First Close
Hard Money Loan — 9.99% Interest-Only
Loan Amount
$267,575
Purchase (95% LTV)
$249,375
Rehab (100%)
$18,200
Loan-to-ARV
73.5%
Monthly Interest
$2,228/mo
Down Payment5% of $262,500 purchase
$13,125+
Origination Fee1 pts on $267,575 loan
$2,676+
Closing Costs5% of purchase
$13,125=
Cash to First Close
$28,926Holding Period — 2 Months
HML Interest9.99% IO · $2,228/mo × 2$4,455
Property Taxes$477/mo × 2$955
Insurance$234/mo × 2$468
Total Holding Costs$5,877
Contingency Reserve10% of rehab — held, not at first close$1,820
DSCR Refinance — Second Close
DSCR Loan Proceeds75% of ARV · 7.1% / 30yr
$273,000−
HML Principal Payofffull IO loan balance
$267,575−
Origination Fee1 pts on $273,000
$2,730−
Closing Coststitle / appraisal / escrow
$5,460=
Cash to Bring to Close
−$2,765Deal Summary
Cash to First Close
$28,926+
Holding Costs (2 mo)
$5,877+
Contingency Reserve
$1,820−
Cash to Bring at Refi
+$2,765=
Capital Left in Deal
$39,388Equity Position — Day 1 Post-Refi
ARV
$364,000−
DSCR Loan Balance
$273,000=
Equity in Property
$91,000 (25.0%)−
Capital Left in Deal
$39,388=
Value Created
$51,612$91,000 equity on $39,388 deployed = 2.3× equity leverage
Monthly Income & Expenses — Post-DSCR
Gross Rent
$2,464−
Property Taxes
$477−
Insurance
$234−
Maintenance (6% rent)
$148−
Management (6% rent)
$148=
OpEx Subtotal
$1,007=
Net Operating Income
$1,457−
DSCR P&I
$1,835/mo=
Net Cash Flow
−$377/moDSCR Ratios — Cash-Out vs No Cash-Out vs DSCR=1.0
Cash-Out Refi
75% of ARV — full LTV
Loan Amount$273,000
Monthly P&I$1,835/mo
Net Cash Flow−$377/mo
Cash Still Required−$2,765
DSCR
0.794x✗ Fail
Lender DSCR
0.968x✗ Fail
No Cash-Out
75.0% LTV — capped short $2,765
Loan Amount$273,000
Monthly P&I$1,835/mo
Net Cash Flow−$377/mo
Cash Still Required−$2,765
DSCR
0.794x✗ Fail
Lender DSCR
0.968x✗ Fail
DSCR = 1.00x
59.6% LTV — still short $57,252
Loan Amount$216,828
Monthly P&I$1,457/mo
Net Cash Flow$0/mo
Cash Still Required−$57,252
DSCR
1.000x✗ Fail
Lender DSCR
1.136x✓ Pass
Required Rent by DSCR Target
| Target | Rent Needed | vs Current |
|---|---|---|
| 1.00x | $2,893/mo | +$429 needed |
| 1.10x | $3,101/mo | +$637 needed |
| 1.20x | $3,310/mo | +$846 needed |
| 1.30x ← | $3,518/mo | +$1,054 needed |
| 1.40x | $3,727/mo | +$1,263 needed |
Scenario 3 — Cash→DSCR
All-cash purchase → DSCR refi · 75% ARV · 7.1% / 30yr
❌
FAILS DSCR
Min 1.30x · 7.1% / 30-yr DSCR · 75% of ARV
0.794x
DSCR
Monthly Cash Flow
−$377/mo
Cash-on-Cash Yr 1
-14.0%
$32,257 left in deal
Acquisition Event — First Close
Purchase Price
$262,500+
Rehab Budget
$18,200+
Closing Costs5% of purchase
$13,125=
Total Cash to First Close
$293,825Holding Period — 2 Months
Property Taxes$477/mo × 2$955
Insurance$234/mo × 2$468
Total Holding Costs$1,422
Contingency Reserve10% of rehab — held, not at first close$1,820
DSCR Refinance — Second Close
DSCR Loan Proceeds75% of ARV · 7.1% / 30yr
$273,000−
Origination Fee1 pts on $273,000
$2,730−
Closing Coststitle / appraisal / escrow
$5,460=
Net Cash Recovered
$264,810Deal Summary
Total Cash to First Close
$293,825+
Holding Costs (2 mo)
$1,422+
Contingency Reserve
$1,820−
Net Cash Recovered at Refi
$264,810=
Capital Left in Deal
$32,257Equity Position — Day 1 Post-Refi
ARV
$364,000−
DSCR Loan Balance
$273,000=
Equity in Property
$91,000 (25.0%)−
Capital Left in Deal
$32,257=
Value Created
$58,743$91,000 equity on $32,257 deployed = 2.8× equity leverage
Monthly Income & Expenses — Post-DSCR
Gross Rent
$2,464−
Property Taxes
$477−
Insurance
$234−
Maintenance (6% rent)
$148−
Management (6% rent)
$148=
OpEx Subtotal
$1,007=
Net Operating Income
$1,457−
DSCR P&I
$1,835/mo=
Net Cash Flow
−$377/moDSCR Ratios — Cash-Out vs No Cash-Out
Cash-Out Refi
75% of ARV — full LTV
Loan Amount$273,000
Monthly P&I$1,835/mo
Net Cash Flow−$377/mo
Cash Still Required−$32,257
DSCR
0.794x✗ Fail
Lender DSCR
0.968x✗ Fail
No Cash-Out
75.0% LTV — capped short $32,257
Loan Amount$273,000
Monthly P&I$1,835/mo
Net Cash Flow−$377/mo
Cash Still Required−$32,257
DSCR
0.794x✗ Fail
Lender DSCR
0.968x✗ Fail
Required Rent by DSCR Target
| Target | Rent Needed | vs Current |
|---|---|---|
| 1.00x | $2,893/mo | +$429 needed |
| 1.10x | $3,101/mo | +$637 needed |
| 1.20x | $3,310/mo | +$846 needed |
| 1.30x ← | $3,518/mo | +$1,054 needed |
| 1.40x | $3,727/mo | +$1,263 needed |