301 Forest Way, Conroe, TX 77304
3,535 sqft · built 1965 · Single Family (SFR)Analyzed Oct 25, 2026MX Group Partner$
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Scenario 1 — Flip
Hard money loan · sell at ARV after rehab
✅
PASSES FLIP
Min 20% ROI · 6-mo hold
46.7%
Flip ROI
Cash to First Close
$28,083
what you bring day 1
Net Profit
$22,029
Max Bid @ 20%
$265,813
$22,029 profit ÷ $47,131 total invested = 46.7%
Acquisition Event — First Close
Hard Money Loan — 9.99% Interest-Only
Loan Amount
$260,260
Purchase (95% LTV)
$242,060
Rehab (100%)
$18,200
Loan-to-ARV
71.5%
Monthly Interest
$2,167/mo
Down Payment5% of $254,800 purchase
$12,740+
Origination Fee1 pts on $260,260 loan
$2,603+
Closing Costs5% of purchase
$12,740=
Cash to First Close
$28,083Holding Period — 6 Months
HML Interest9.99% IO · $2,167/mo × 6$13,000
Property Taxes$477/mo × 6$2,864
Insurance$228/mo × 6$1,365
Total Holding Costs$17,228
Contingency Reserve10% of rehab — held, not at first close$1,820
Sale Event — Second Close
Sale Price (ARV)
$364,000−
HML Principal Payofffull IO loan balance
$260,260−
Closing Costs3.5% of sale price
$12,740−
Realtor Commission6% of sale price
$21,840=
Net Proceeds to You
$69,160Deal Summary
Net Proceeds at Closing
$69,160−
Cash to First Close
$28,083−
Holding Costs (6 mo)
$17,228−
Contingency Reserve
$1,820=
NET PROFIT
$22,029Max Bid by ROI Target
| ROI | Max Bid | vs Offer |
|---|---|---|
| 10% | $270,149 | ✓ ok |
| 15% | $267,966 | ✓ ok |
| 20% ← | $265,813 | ✓ ok |
| 25% | $263,691 | ✓ ok |
| 30% | $261,598 | ✓ ok |
Scenario 2 — HM→DSCR
Hard money @ 9.99% IO → DSCR refi · 75% ARV · 7.1% / 30yr
❌
FAILS DSCR
Min 1.30x · 7.1% / 30-yr DSCR · 75% of ARV
0.798x
DSCR
Monthly Cash Flow
−$371/mo
Cash-on-Cash Yr 1
-14.3%
$31,095 left in deal
Acquisition Event — First Close
Hard Money Loan — 9.99% Interest-Only
Loan Amount
$260,260
Purchase (95% LTV)
$242,060
Rehab (100%)
$18,200
Loan-to-ARV
71.5%
Monthly Interest
$2,167/mo
Down Payment5% of $254,800 purchase
$12,740+
Origination Fee1 pts on $260,260 loan
$2,603+
Closing Costs5% of purchase
$12,740=
Cash to First Close
$28,083Holding Period — 2 Months
HML Interest9.99% IO · $2,167/mo × 2$4,333
Property Taxes$477/mo × 2$955
Insurance$228/mo × 2$455
Total Holding Costs$5,743
Contingency Reserve10% of rehab — held, not at first close$1,820
DSCR Refinance — Second Close
DSCR Loan Proceeds75% of ARV · 7.1% / 30yr
$273,000−
HML Principal Payofffull IO loan balance
$260,260−
Origination Fee1 pts on $273,000
$2,730−
Closing Coststitle / appraisal / escrow
$5,460=
Cash Back to You
+$4,550Deal Summary
Cash to First Close
$28,083+
Holding Costs (2 mo)
$5,743+
Contingency Reserve
$1,820−
Cash Back at Refi
−$4,550=
Capital Left in Deal
$31,095Equity Position — Day 1 Post-Refi
ARV
$364,000−
DSCR Loan Balance
$273,000=
Equity in Property
$91,000 (25.0%)−
Capital Left in Deal
$31,095=
Value Created
$59,905$91,000 equity on $31,095 deployed = 2.9× equity leverage
Monthly Income & Expenses — Post-DSCR
Gross Rent
$2,464−
Property Taxes
$477−
Insurance
$228−
Maintenance (6% rent)
$148−
Management (6% rent)
$148=
OpEx Subtotal
$1,000=
Net Operating Income
$1,464−
DSCR P&I
$1,835/mo=
Net Cash Flow
−$371/moDSCR Ratios — Cash-Out vs No Cash-Out vs DSCR=1.0
Cash-Out Refi
75% of ARV — full LTV
Loan Amount$273,000
Monthly P&I$1,835/mo
Net Cash Flow−$371/mo
Cash Back at Refi+$4,550
DSCR
0.798x✗ Fail
Lender DSCR
0.970x✗ Fail
No Cash-Out
73.7% LTV — breakeven refi
Loan Amount$268,309
Monthly P&I$1,803/mo
Net Cash Flow−$340/mo
Cash Back at Refi+$0
DSCR
0.812x✗ Fail
Lender DSCR
0.983x✗ Fail
DSCR = 1.00x
59.8% LTV — still short $49,011
Loan Amount$217,783
Monthly P&I$1,464/mo
Net Cash Flow$0/mo
Cash Still Required−$49,011
DSCR
1.000x✗ Fail
Lender DSCR
1.136x✓ Pass
Required Rent by DSCR Target
| Target | Rent Needed | vs Current |
|---|---|---|
| 1.00x | $2,886/mo | +$422 needed |
| 1.10x | $3,094/mo | +$630 needed |
| 1.20x | $3,303/mo | +$839 needed |
| 1.30x ← | $3,511/mo | +$1,047 needed |
| 1.40x | $3,720/mo | +$1,256 needed |
Scenario 3 — Cash→DSCR
All-cash purchase → DSCR refi · 75% ARV · 7.1% / 30yr
❌
FAILS DSCR
Min 1.30x · 7.1% / 30-yr DSCR · 75% of ARV
0.798x
DSCR
Monthly Cash Flow
−$371/mo
Cash-on-Cash Yr 1
-18.4%
$24,160 left in deal
Acquisition Event — First Close
Purchase Price
$254,800+
Rehab Budget
$18,200+
Closing Costs5% of purchase
$12,740=
Total Cash to First Close
$285,740Holding Period — 2 Months
Property Taxes$477/mo × 2$955
Insurance$228/mo × 2$455
Total Holding Costs$1,410
Contingency Reserve10% of rehab — held, not at first close$1,820
DSCR Refinance — Second Close
DSCR Loan Proceeds75% of ARV · 7.1% / 30yr
$273,000−
Origination Fee1 pts on $273,000
$2,730−
Closing Coststitle / appraisal / escrow
$5,460=
Net Cash Recovered
$264,810Deal Summary
Total Cash to First Close
$285,740+
Holding Costs (2 mo)
$1,410+
Contingency Reserve
$1,820−
Net Cash Recovered at Refi
$264,810=
Capital Left in Deal
$24,160Equity Position — Day 1 Post-Refi
ARV
$364,000−
DSCR Loan Balance
$273,000=
Equity in Property
$91,000 (25.0%)−
Capital Left in Deal
$24,160=
Value Created
$66,841$91,000 equity on $24,160 deployed = 3.8× equity leverage
Monthly Income & Expenses — Post-DSCR
Gross Rent
$2,464−
Property Taxes
$477−
Insurance
$228−
Maintenance (6% rent)
$148−
Management (6% rent)
$148=
OpEx Subtotal
$1,000=
Net Operating Income
$1,464−
DSCR P&I
$1,835/mo=
Net Cash Flow
−$371/moDSCR Ratios — Cash-Out vs No Cash-Out
Cash-Out Refi
75% of ARV — full LTV
Loan Amount$273,000
Monthly P&I$1,835/mo
Net Cash Flow−$371/mo
Cash Still Required−$24,160
DSCR
0.798x✗ Fail
Lender DSCR
0.970x✗ Fail
No Cash-Out
75.0% LTV — capped short $24,160
Loan Amount$273,000
Monthly P&I$1,835/mo
Net Cash Flow−$371/mo
Cash Still Required−$24,160
DSCR
0.798x✗ Fail
Lender DSCR
0.970x✗ Fail
Required Rent by DSCR Target
| Target | Rent Needed | vs Current |
|---|---|---|
| 1.00x | $2,886/mo | +$422 needed |
| 1.10x | $3,094/mo | +$630 needed |
| 1.20x | $3,303/mo | +$839 needed |
| 1.30x ← | $3,511/mo | +$1,047 needed |
| 1.40x | $3,720/mo | +$1,256 needed |