29318 Fair Sky Trl, Spring, TX 77386
4bd / 3ba · 2,680 sqft · built 2018 · Single Family (SFR)Analyzed Oct 25, 2026MX Group Partner$
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Scenario 1 — Flip
Hard money loan · sell at ARV after rehab
✅
PASSES FLIP
Min 20% ROI · 6-mo hold
37.6%
Flip ROI
Cash to First Close
$25,810
what you bring day 1
Net Profit
$16,347
Max Bid @ 20%
$239,909
$16,347 profit ÷ $43,503 total invested = 37.6%
Acquisition Event — First Close
Hard Money Loan — 9.99% Interest-Only
Loan Amount
$237,895
Purchase (95% LTV)
$221,445
Rehab (100%)
$16,450
Loan-to-ARV
72.3%
Monthly Interest
$1,980/mo
Down Payment5% of $233,100 purchase
$11,655+
Origination Fee1 pts on $237,895 loan
$2,500+
Closing Costs5% of purchase
$11,655=
Cash to First Close
$25,810Holding Period — 6 Months
HML Interest9.99% IO · $1,980/mo × 6$11,883
Property Taxes$449/mo × 6$2,695
Insurance$208/mo × 6$1,248
HOA$37/mo × 6$222
Total Holding Costs$16,048
Contingency Reserve10% of rehab — held, not at first close$1,645
Sale Event — Second Close
Sale Price (ARV)
$329,000−
HML Principal Payofffull IO loan balance
$237,895−
Closing Costs3.5% of sale price
$11,515−
Realtor Commission6% of sale price
$19,740=
Net Proceeds to You
$59,850Deal Summary
Net Proceeds at Closing
$59,850−
Cash to First Close
$25,810−
Holding Costs (6 mo)
$16,048−
Contingency Reserve
$1,645=
NET PROFIT
$16,347Max Bid by ROI Target
| ROI | Max Bid | vs Offer |
|---|---|---|
| 10% | $243,852 | ✓ ok |
| 15% | $241,867 | ✓ ok |
| 20% ← | $239,909 | ✓ ok |
| 25% | $237,979 | ✓ ok |
| 30% | $236,076 | ✓ ok |
Scenario 2 — HM→DSCR
Hard money @ 9.99% IO → DSCR refi · 75% ARV · 7.1% / 30yr
❌
FAILS DSCR
Min 1.30x · 7.1% / 30-yr DSCR · 75% of ARV
1.003x
DSCR
Monthly Cash Flow
$4/mo
Cash-on-Cash Yr 1
0.2%
$31,352 left in deal
Acquisition Event — First Close
Hard Money Loan — 9.99% Interest-Only
Loan Amount
$237,895
Purchase (95% LTV)
$221,445
Rehab (100%)
$16,450
Loan-to-ARV
72.3%
Monthly Interest
$1,980/mo
Down Payment5% of $233,100 purchase
$11,655+
Origination Fee1 pts on $237,895 loan
$2,500+
Closing Costs5% of purchase
$11,655=
Cash to First Close
$25,810Holding Period — 2 Months
HML Interest9.99% IO · $1,980/mo × 2$3,961
Property Taxes$449/mo × 2$898
Insurance$208/mo × 2$416
HOA$37/mo × 2$74
Total Holding Costs$5,349
Contingency Reserve10% of rehab — held, not at first close$1,645
DSCR Refinance — Second Close
DSCR Loan Proceeds75% of ARV · 7.1% / 30yr
$246,750−
HML Principal Payofffull IO loan balance
$237,895−
Origination Fee1 pts on $246,750
$2,468−
Closing Coststitle / appraisal / escrow
$4,935=
Cash Back to You
+$1,453Deal Summary
Cash to First Close
$25,810+
Holding Costs (2 mo)
$5,349+
Contingency Reserve
$1,645−
Cash Back at Refi
−$1,453=
Capital Left in Deal
$31,352Equity Position — Day 1 Post-Refi
ARV
$329,000−
DSCR Loan Balance
$246,750=
Equity in Property
$82,250 (25.0%)−
Capital Left in Deal
$31,352=
Value Created
$50,898$82,250 equity on $31,352 deployed = 2.6× equity leverage
Monthly Income & Expenses — Post-DSCR
Gross Rent
$2,678−
Property Taxes
$449−
Insurance
$208−
Maintenance (6% rent)
$161−
Management (6% rent)
$161−
HOA
$37=
OpEx Subtotal
$1,015=
Net Operating Income
$1,663−
DSCR P&I
$1,658/mo=
Net Cash Flow
$4/moDSCR Ratios — Cash-Out vs No Cash-Out vs DSCR=1.0
Cash-Out Refi
75% of ARV — full LTV
Loan Amount$246,750
Monthly P&I$1,658/mo
Net Cash Flow$4/mo
Cash Back at Refi+$1,453
DSCR
1.003x✗ Fail
Lender DSCR
1.138x✓ Pass
No Cash-Out
74.5% LTV — breakeven refi
Loan Amount$245,253
Monthly P&I$1,648/mo
Net Cash Flow$14/mo
Cash Back at Refi+$0
DSCR
1.009x✗ Fail
Lender DSCR
1.143x✓ Pass
DSCR = 1.00x
Not DSCR-constrained — the 75% ARV cash-out loan already clears 1.003xx.
Required Rent by DSCR Target
| Target | Rent Needed | vs Current |
|---|---|---|
| 1.00x | $2,673/mo | ✓ met |
| 1.10x | $2,862/mo | +$184 needed |
| 1.20x | $3,050/mo | +$372 needed |
| 1.30x ← | $3,238/mo | +$560 needed |
| 1.40x | $3,427/mo | +$749 needed |
Scenario 3 — Cash→DSCR
All-cash purchase → DSCR refi · 75% ARV · 7.1% / 30yr
❌
FAILS DSCR
Min 1.30x · 7.1% / 30-yr DSCR · 75% of ARV
1.003x
DSCR
Monthly Cash Flow
$4/mo
Cash-on-Cash Yr 1
0.2%
$24,891 left in deal
Acquisition Event — First Close
Purchase Price
$233,100+
Rehab Budget
$16,450+
Closing Costs5% of purchase
$11,655=
Total Cash to First Close
$261,205Holding Period — 2 Months
Property Taxes$449/mo × 2$898
Insurance$208/mo × 2$416
HOA$37/mo × 2$74
Total Holding Costs$1,388
Contingency Reserve10% of rehab — held, not at first close$1,645
DSCR Refinance — Second Close
DSCR Loan Proceeds75% of ARV · 7.1% / 30yr
$246,750−
Origination Fee1 pts on $246,750
$2,468−
Closing Coststitle / appraisal / escrow
$4,935=
Net Cash Recovered
$239,348Deal Summary
Total Cash to First Close
$261,205+
Holding Costs (2 mo)
$1,388+
Contingency Reserve
$1,645−
Net Cash Recovered at Refi
$239,348=
Capital Left in Deal
$24,891Equity Position — Day 1 Post-Refi
ARV
$329,000−
DSCR Loan Balance
$246,750=
Equity in Property
$82,250 (25.0%)−
Capital Left in Deal
$24,891=
Value Created
$57,359$82,250 equity on $24,891 deployed = 3.3× equity leverage
Monthly Income & Expenses — Post-DSCR
Gross Rent
$2,678−
Property Taxes
$449−
Insurance
$208−
Maintenance (6% rent)
$161−
Management (6% rent)
$161−
HOA
$37=
OpEx Subtotal
$1,015=
Net Operating Income
$1,663−
DSCR P&I
$1,658/mo=
Net Cash Flow
$4/moDSCR Ratios — Cash-Out vs No Cash-Out
Cash-Out Refi
75% of ARV — full LTV
Loan Amount$246,750
Monthly P&I$1,658/mo
Net Cash Flow$4/mo
Cash Still Required−$24,891
DSCR
1.003x✗ Fail
Lender DSCR
1.138x✓ Pass
No Cash-Out
75.0% LTV — capped short $24,891
Loan Amount$246,750
Monthly P&I$1,658/mo
Net Cash Flow$4/mo
Cash Still Required−$24,891
DSCR
1.003x✗ Fail
Lender DSCR
1.138x✓ Pass
Required Rent by DSCR Target
| Target | Rent Needed | vs Current |
|---|---|---|
| 1.00x | $2,673/mo | ✓ met |
| 1.10x | $2,862/mo | +$184 needed |
| 1.20x | $3,050/mo | +$372 needed |
| 1.30x ← | $3,238/mo | +$560 needed |
| 1.40x | $3,427/mo | +$749 needed |