2316 Mallard Dr, Caldwell, TX 77836
4bd / 2ba · 1,936 sqft · built 1983 · Single Family (SFR)Analyzed Oct 25, 2026MX Group Partner$
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Scenario 1 — Flip
Hard money loan · sell at ARV after rehab
✅
PASSES FLIP
Min 20% ROI · 6-mo hold
62.5%
Flip ROI
Cash to First Close
$18,670
what you bring day 1
Net Profit
$19,507
Max Bid @ 20%
$174,175
$19,507 profit ÷ $31,223 total invested = 62.5%
Acquisition Event — First Close
Hard Money Loan — 9.99% Interest-Only
Loan Amount
$165,565
Purchase (95% LTV)
$153,615
Rehab (100%)
$11,950
Loan-to-ARV
69.3%
Monthly Interest
$1,378/mo
Down Payment5% of $161,700 purchase
$8,085+
Origination Fee1 pts on $165,565 loan
$2,500+
Closing Costs5% of purchase
$8,085=
Cash to First Close
$18,670Holding Period — 6 Months
HML Interest9.99% IO · $1,378/mo × 6$8,270
Property Taxes$360/mo × 6$2,160
Insurance$145/mo × 6$868
HOA$10/mo × 6$60
Total Holding Costs$11,358
Contingency Reserve10% of rehab — held, not at first close$1,195
Sale Event — Second Close
Sale Price (ARV)
$239,000−
HML Principal Payofffull IO loan balance
$165,565−
Closing Costs3.5% of sale price
$8,365−
Realtor Commission6% of sale price
$14,340=
Net Proceeds to You
$50,730Deal Summary
Net Proceeds at Closing
$50,730−
Cash to First Close
$18,670−
Holding Costs (6 mo)
$11,358−
Contingency Reserve
$1,195=
NET PROFIT
$19,507Max Bid by ROI Target
| ROI | Max Bid | vs Offer |
|---|---|---|
| 10% | $177,047 | ✓ ok |
| 15% | $175,600 | ✓ ok |
| 20% ← | $174,175 | ✓ ok |
| 25% | $172,769 | ✓ ok |
| 30% | $171,383 | ✓ ok |
Scenario 2 — HM→DSCR
Hard money @ 9.99% IO → DSCR refi · 75% ARV · 7.1% / 30yr
❌
FAILS DSCR
Min 1.30x · 7.1% / 30-yr DSCR · 75% of ARV
0.652x
DSCR
Monthly Cash Flow
−$420/mo
Cash-on-Cash Yr 1
-32.8%
$15,344 left in deal
Acquisition Event — First Close
Hard Money Loan — 9.99% Interest-Only
Loan Amount
$165,565
Purchase (95% LTV)
$153,615
Rehab (100%)
$11,950
Loan-to-ARV
69.3%
Monthly Interest
$1,378/mo
Down Payment5% of $161,700 purchase
$8,085+
Origination Fee1 pts on $165,565 loan
$2,500+
Closing Costs5% of purchase
$8,085=
Cash to First Close
$18,670Holding Period — 2 Months
HML Interest9.99% IO · $1,378/mo × 2$2,757
Property Taxes$360/mo × 2$720
Insurance$145/mo × 2$289
HOA$10/mo × 2$20
Total Holding Costs$3,786
Contingency Reserve10% of rehab — held, not at first close$1,195
DSCR Refinance — Second Close
DSCR Loan Proceeds75% of ARV · 7.1% / 30yr
$179,250−
HML Principal Payofffull IO loan balance
$165,565−
Origination Fee1 pts on $179,250
$1,793−
Closing Coststitle / appraisal / escrow
$3,585=
Cash Back to You
+$8,308Deal Summary
Cash to First Close
$18,670+
Holding Costs (2 mo)
$3,786+
Contingency Reserve
$1,195−
Cash Back at Refi
−$8,308=
Capital Left in Deal
$15,344Equity Position — Day 1 Post-Refi
ARV
$239,000−
DSCR Loan Balance
$179,250=
Equity in Property
$59,750 (25.0%)−
Capital Left in Deal
$15,344=
Value Created
$44,406$59,750 equity on $15,344 deployed = 3.9× equity leverage
Monthly Income & Expenses — Post-DSCR
Gross Rent
$1,477−
Property Taxes
$360−
Insurance
$145−
Maintenance (6% rent)
$89−
Management (6% rent)
$89−
HOA
$10=
OpEx Subtotal
$692=
Net Operating Income
$785−
DSCR P&I
$1,205/mo=
Net Cash Flow
−$420/moDSCR Ratios — Cash-Out vs No Cash-Out vs DSCR=1.0
Cash-Out Refi
75% of ARV — full LTV
Loan Amount$179,250
Monthly P&I$1,205/mo
Net Cash Flow−$420/mo
Cash Back at Refi+$8,308
DSCR
0.652x✗ Fail
Lender DSCR
0.859x✗ Fail
No Cash-Out
71.4% LTV — breakeven refi
Loan Amount$170,686
Monthly P&I$1,147/mo
Net Cash Flow−$362/mo
Cash Back at Refi+$0
DSCR
0.684x✗ Fail
Lender DSCR
0.889x✗ Fail
DSCR = 1.00x
48.9% LTV — still short $52,252
Loan Amount$116,818
Monthly P&I$785/mo
Net Cash Flow$0/mo
Cash Still Required−$52,252
DSCR
1.000x✗ Fail
Lender DSCR
1.136x✓ Pass
Required Rent by DSCR Target
| Target | Rent Needed | vs Current |
|---|---|---|
| 1.00x | $1,954/mo | +$477 needed |
| 1.10x | $2,091/mo | +$614 needed |
| 1.20x | $2,228/mo | +$751 needed |
| 1.30x ← | $2,364/mo | +$887 needed |
| 1.40x | $2,501/mo | +$1,024 needed |
Scenario 3 — Cash→DSCR
All-cash purchase → DSCR refi · 75% ARV · 7.1% / 30yr
❌
FAILS DSCR
Min 1.30x · 7.1% / 30-yr DSCR · 75% of ARV
0.652x
DSCR
Monthly Cash Flow
−$420/mo
Cash-on-Cash Yr 1
-49.9%
$10,087 left in deal
Acquisition Event — First Close
Purchase Price
$161,700+
Rehab Budget
$11,950+
Closing Costs5% of purchase
$8,085=
Total Cash to First Close
$181,735Holding Period — 2 Months
Property Taxes$360/mo × 2$720
Insurance$145/mo × 2$289
HOA$10/mo × 2$20
Total Holding Costs$1,029
Contingency Reserve10% of rehab — held, not at first close$1,195
DSCR Refinance — Second Close
DSCR Loan Proceeds75% of ARV · 7.1% / 30yr
$179,250−
Origination Fee1 pts on $179,250
$1,793−
Closing Coststitle / appraisal / escrow
$3,585=
Net Cash Recovered
$173,873Deal Summary
Total Cash to First Close
$181,735+
Holding Costs (2 mo)
$1,029+
Contingency Reserve
$1,195−
Net Cash Recovered at Refi
$173,873=
Capital Left in Deal
$10,087Equity Position — Day 1 Post-Refi
ARV
$239,000−
DSCR Loan Balance
$179,250=
Equity in Property
$59,750 (25.0%)−
Capital Left in Deal
$10,087=
Value Created
$49,663$59,750 equity on $10,087 deployed = 5.9× equity leverage
Monthly Income & Expenses — Post-DSCR
Gross Rent
$1,477−
Property Taxes
$360−
Insurance
$145−
Maintenance (6% rent)
$89−
Management (6% rent)
$89−
HOA
$10=
OpEx Subtotal
$692=
Net Operating Income
$785−
DSCR P&I
$1,205/mo=
Net Cash Flow
−$420/moDSCR Ratios — Cash-Out vs No Cash-Out
Cash-Out Refi
75% of ARV — full LTV
Loan Amount$179,250
Monthly P&I$1,205/mo
Net Cash Flow−$420/mo
Cash Still Required−$10,087
DSCR
0.652x✗ Fail
Lender DSCR
0.859x✗ Fail
No Cash-Out
75.0% LTV — capped short $10,087
Loan Amount$179,250
Monthly P&I$1,205/mo
Net Cash Flow−$420/mo
Cash Still Required−$10,087
DSCR
0.652x✗ Fail
Lender DSCR
0.859x✗ Fail
Required Rent by DSCR Target
| Target | Rent Needed | vs Current |
|---|---|---|
| 1.00x | $1,954/mo | +$477 needed |
| 1.10x | $2,091/mo | +$614 needed |
| 1.20x | $2,228/mo | +$751 needed |
| 1.30x ← | $2,364/mo | +$887 needed |
| 1.40x | $2,501/mo | +$1,024 needed |