209 Almond Dr, Lake Jackson, TX 77566
4bd / 2ba · 1,546 sqft · built 1990 · Single Family (SFR)Analyzed Oct 25, 2026MX Group Partner$
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Scenario 1 — Flip
Hard money loan · sell at ARV after rehab
❌
FAILS FLIP
Min 20% ROI · 6-mo hold
2.5%
Flip ROI
Cash to First Close
$18,740
what you bring day 1
Net Profit
$779
Max Bid @ 20%
$158,494
$779 profit ÷ $31,331 total invested = 2.5%
Acquisition Event — First Close
Hard Money Loan — 9.99% Interest-Only
Loan Amount
$165,180
Purchase (95% LTV)
$154,280
Rehab (100%)
$10,900
Loan-to-ARV
75.8%
Monthly Interest
$1,375/mo
Down Payment5% of $162,400 purchase
$8,120+
Origination Fee1 pts on $165,180 loan
$2,500+
Closing Costs5% of purchase
$8,120=
Cash to First Close
$18,740Holding Period — 6 Months
HML Interest9.99% IO · $1,375/mo × 6$8,251
Property Taxes$161/mo × 6$968
Insurance$144/mo × 6$867
HOA$236/mo × 6$1,416
Total Holding Costs$11,501
Contingency Reserve10% of rehab — held, not at first close$1,090
Sale Event — Second Close
Sale Price (ARV)
$218,000−
HML Principal Payofffull IO loan balance
$165,180−
Closing Costs3.5% of sale price
$7,630−
Realtor Commission6% of sale price
$13,080=
Net Proceeds to You
$32,110Deal Summary
Net Proceeds at Closing
$32,110−
Cash to First Close
$18,740−
Holding Costs (6 mo)
$11,501−
Contingency Reserve
$1,090=
NET PROFIT
$779Max Bid by ROI Target
| ROI | Max Bid | vs Offer |
|---|---|---|
| 10% | $161,140 | −$1,260 |
| 15% | $159,808 | −$2,592 |
| 20% ← | $158,494 | −$3,906 |
| 25% | $157,199 | −$5,201 |
| 30% | $155,922 | −$6,478 |
Scenario 2 — HM→DSCR
Hard money @ 9.99% IO → DSCR refi · 75% ARV · 7.1% / 30yr
❌
FAILS DSCR
Min 1.30x · 7.1% / 30-yr DSCR · 75% of ARV
1.044x
DSCR
Monthly Cash Flow
$48/mo
Cash-on-Cash Yr 1
1.9%
$30,249 left in deal
Acquisition Event — First Close
Hard Money Loan — 9.99% Interest-Only
Loan Amount
$165,180
Purchase (95% LTV)
$154,280
Rehab (100%)
$10,900
Loan-to-ARV
75.8%
Monthly Interest
$1,375/mo
Down Payment5% of $162,400 purchase
$8,120+
Origination Fee1 pts on $165,180 loan
$2,500+
Closing Costs5% of purchase
$8,120=
Cash to First Close
$18,740Holding Period — 2 Months
HML Interest9.99% IO · $1,375/mo × 2$2,750
Property Taxes$161/mo × 2$323
Insurance$144/mo × 2$289
HOA$236/mo × 2$472
Total Holding Costs$3,834
Contingency Reserve10% of rehab — held, not at first close$1,090
DSCR Refinance — Second Close
DSCR Loan Proceeds75% of ARV · 7.1% / 30yr
$163,500−
HML Principal Payofffull IO loan balance
$165,180−
Origination Fee1 pts on $163,500
$1,635−
Closing Coststitle / appraisal / escrow
$3,270=
Cash to Bring to Close
−$6,585Deal Summary
Cash to First Close
$18,740+
Holding Costs (2 mo)
$3,834+
Contingency Reserve
$1,090−
Cash to Bring at Refi
+$6,585=
Capital Left in Deal
$30,249Equity Position — Day 1 Post-Refi
ARV
$218,000−
DSCR Loan Balance
$163,500=
Equity in Property
$54,500 (25.0%)−
Capital Left in Deal
$30,249=
Value Created
$24,251$54,500 equity on $30,249 deployed = 1.8× equity leverage
Monthly Income & Expenses — Post-DSCR
Gross Rent
$1,919−
Property Taxes
$161−
Insurance
$144−
Maintenance (6% rent)
$115−
Management (6% rent)
$115−
HOA
$236=
OpEx Subtotal
$772=
Net Operating Income
$1,147−
DSCR P&I
$1,099/mo=
Net Cash Flow
$48/moDSCR Ratios — Cash-Out vs No Cash-Out vs DSCR=1.0
Cash-Out Refi
75% of ARV — full LTV
Loan Amount$163,500
Monthly P&I$1,099/mo
Net Cash Flow$48/mo
Cash Still Required−$6,585
DSCR
1.044x✗ Fail
Lender DSCR
1.170x✓ Pass
No Cash-Out
75.0% LTV — capped short $6,585
Loan Amount$163,500
Monthly P&I$1,099/mo
Net Cash Flow$48/mo
Cash Still Required−$6,585
DSCR
1.044x✗ Fail
Lender DSCR
1.170x✓ Pass
DSCR = 1.00x
Not DSCR-constrained — the 75% ARV cash-out loan already clears 1.044xx.
Required Rent by DSCR Target
| Target | Rent Needed | vs Current |
|---|---|---|
| 1.00x | $1,864/mo | ✓ met |
| 1.10x | $1,989/mo | +$70 needed |
| 1.20x | $2,114/mo | +$195 needed |
| 1.30x ← | $2,239/mo | +$320 needed |
| 1.40x | $2,364/mo | +$445 needed |
Scenario 3 — Cash→DSCR
All-cash purchase → DSCR refi · 75% ARV · 7.1% / 30yr
❌
FAILS DSCR
Min 1.30x · 7.1% / 30-yr DSCR · 75% of ARV
1.044x
DSCR
Monthly Cash Flow
$48/mo
Cash-on-Cash Yr 1
2.3%
$24,999 left in deal
Acquisition Event — First Close
Purchase Price
$162,400+
Rehab Budget
$10,900+
Closing Costs5% of purchase
$8,120=
Total Cash to First Close
$181,420Holding Period — 2 Months
Property Taxes$161/mo × 2$323
Insurance$144/mo × 2$289
HOA$236/mo × 2$472
Total Holding Costs$1,084
Contingency Reserve10% of rehab — held, not at first close$1,090
DSCR Refinance — Second Close
DSCR Loan Proceeds75% of ARV · 7.1% / 30yr
$163,500−
Origination Fee1 pts on $163,500
$1,635−
Closing Coststitle / appraisal / escrow
$3,270=
Net Cash Recovered
$158,595Deal Summary
Total Cash to First Close
$181,420+
Holding Costs (2 mo)
$1,084+
Contingency Reserve
$1,090−
Net Cash Recovered at Refi
$158,595=
Capital Left in Deal
$24,999Equity Position — Day 1 Post-Refi
ARV
$218,000−
DSCR Loan Balance
$163,500=
Equity in Property
$54,500 (25.0%)−
Capital Left in Deal
$24,999=
Value Created
$29,502$54,500 equity on $24,999 deployed = 2.2× equity leverage
Monthly Income & Expenses — Post-DSCR
Gross Rent
$1,919−
Property Taxes
$161−
Insurance
$144−
Maintenance (6% rent)
$115−
Management (6% rent)
$115−
HOA
$236=
OpEx Subtotal
$772=
Net Operating Income
$1,147−
DSCR P&I
$1,099/mo=
Net Cash Flow
$48/moDSCR Ratios — Cash-Out vs No Cash-Out
Cash-Out Refi
75% of ARV — full LTV
Loan Amount$163,500
Monthly P&I$1,099/mo
Net Cash Flow$48/mo
Cash Still Required−$24,999
DSCR
1.044x✗ Fail
Lender DSCR
1.170x✓ Pass
No Cash-Out
75.0% LTV — capped short $24,999
Loan Amount$163,500
Monthly P&I$1,099/mo
Net Cash Flow$48/mo
Cash Still Required−$24,999
DSCR
1.044x✗ Fail
Lender DSCR
1.170x✓ Pass
Required Rent by DSCR Target
| Target | Rent Needed | vs Current |
|---|---|---|
| 1.00x | $1,864/mo | ✓ met |
| 1.10x | $1,989/mo | +$70 needed |
| 1.20x | $2,114/mo | +$195 needed |
| 1.30x ← | $2,239/mo | +$320 needed |
| 1.40x | $2,364/mo | +$445 needed |