20830 Twila Springs Dr, Houston, TX 77095
3bd / 2ba · 1,402 sqft · built 2007 · Single Family (SFR)Analyzed Oct 25, 2026MX Group Partner$
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Scenario 1 — Flip
Hard money loan · sell at ARV after rehab
✅
PASSES FLIP
Min 20% ROI · 6-mo hold
39.5%
Flip ROI
Cash to First Close
$21,260
what you bring day 1
Net Profit
$13,689
Max Bid @ 20%
$194,117
$13,689 profit ÷ $34,666 total invested = 39.5%
Acquisition Event — First Close
Hard Money Loan — 9.99% Interest-Only
Loan Amount
$191,470
Purchase (95% LTV)
$178,220
Rehab (100%)
$13,250
Loan-to-ARV
72.3%
Monthly Interest
$1,594/mo
Down Payment5% of $187,600 purchase
$9,380+
Origination Fee1 pts on $191,470 loan
$2,500+
Closing Costs5% of purchase
$9,380=
Cash to First Close
$21,260Holding Period — 6 Months
HML Interest9.99% IO · $1,594/mo × 6$9,564
Property Taxes$214/mo × 6$1,285
Insurance$167/mo × 6$1,004
HOA$38/mo × 6$228
Total Holding Costs$12,081
Contingency Reserve10% of rehab — held, not at first close$1,325
Sale Event — Second Close
Sale Price (ARV)
$265,000−
HML Principal Payofffull IO loan balance
$191,470−
Closing Costs3.5% of sale price
$9,275−
Realtor Commission6% of sale price
$15,900=
Net Proceeds to You
$48,355Deal Summary
Net Proceeds at Closing
$48,355−
Cash to First Close
$21,260−
Holding Costs (6 mo)
$12,081−
Contingency Reserve
$1,325=
NET PROFIT
$13,689Max Bid by ROI Target
| ROI | Max Bid | vs Offer |
|---|---|---|
| 10% | $197,232 | ✓ ok |
| 15% | $195,663 | ✓ ok |
| 20% ← | $194,117 | ✓ ok |
| 25% | $192,593 | ✓ ok |
| 30% | $191,090 | ✓ ok |
Scenario 2 — HM→DSCR
Hard money @ 9.99% IO → DSCR refi · 75% ARV · 7.1% / 30yr
❌
FAILS DSCR
Min 1.30x · 7.1% / 30-yr DSCR · 75% of ARV
0.934x
DSCR
Monthly Cash Flow
−$88/mo
Cash-on-Cash Yr 1
-4.2%
$25,295 left in deal
Acquisition Event — First Close
Hard Money Loan — 9.99% Interest-Only
Loan Amount
$191,470
Purchase (95% LTV)
$178,220
Rehab (100%)
$13,250
Loan-to-ARV
72.3%
Monthly Interest
$1,594/mo
Down Payment5% of $187,600 purchase
$9,380+
Origination Fee1 pts on $191,470 loan
$2,500+
Closing Costs5% of purchase
$9,380=
Cash to First Close
$21,260Holding Period — 2 Months
HML Interest9.99% IO · $1,594/mo × 2$3,188
Property Taxes$214/mo × 2$428
Insurance$167/mo × 2$335
HOA$38/mo × 2$76
Total Holding Costs$4,027
Contingency Reserve10% of rehab — held, not at first close$1,325
DSCR Refinance — Second Close
DSCR Loan Proceeds75% of ARV · 7.1% / 30yr
$198,750−
HML Principal Payofffull IO loan balance
$191,470−
Origination Fee1 pts on $198,750
$1,988−
Closing Coststitle / appraisal / escrow
$3,975=
Cash Back to You
+$1,318Deal Summary
Cash to First Close
$21,260+
Holding Costs (2 mo)
$4,027+
Contingency Reserve
$1,325−
Cash Back at Refi
−$1,318=
Capital Left in Deal
$25,295Equity Position — Day 1 Post-Refi
ARV
$265,000−
DSCR Loan Balance
$198,750=
Equity in Property
$66,250 (25.0%)−
Capital Left in Deal
$25,295=
Value Created
$40,955$66,250 equity on $25,295 deployed = 2.6× equity leverage
Monthly Income & Expenses — Post-DSCR
Gross Rent
$1,894−
Property Taxes
$214−
Insurance
$167−
Maintenance (6% rent)
$114−
Management (6% rent)
$114−
HOA
$38=
OpEx Subtotal
$647=
Net Operating Income
$1,247−
DSCR P&I
$1,336/mo=
Net Cash Flow
−$88/moDSCR Ratios — Cash-Out vs No Cash-Out vs DSCR=1.0
Cash-Out Refi
75% of ARV — full LTV
Loan Amount$198,750
Monthly P&I$1,336/mo
Net Cash Flow−$88/mo
Cash Back at Refi+$1,318
DSCR
0.934x✗ Fail
Lender DSCR
1.079x✓ Pass
No Cash-Out
74.5% LTV — breakeven refi
Loan Amount$197,392
Monthly P&I$1,327/mo
Net Cash Flow−$79/mo
Cash Back at Refi+$0
DSCR
0.940x✗ Fail
Lender DSCR
1.085x✓ Pass
DSCR = 1.00x
70.0% LTV — still short $11,454
Loan Amount$185,583
Monthly P&I$1,247/mo
Net Cash Flow$0/mo
Cash Still Required−$11,454
DSCR
1.000x✗ Fail
Lender DSCR
1.136x✓ Pass
Required Rent by DSCR Target
| Target | Rent Needed | vs Current |
|---|---|---|
| 1.00x | $1,995/mo | +$101 needed |
| 1.10x | $2,146/mo | +$252 needed |
| 1.20x | $2,298/mo | +$404 needed |
| 1.30x ← | $2,450/mo | +$556 needed |
| 1.40x | $2,602/mo | +$708 needed |
Scenario 3 — Cash→DSCR
All-cash purchase → DSCR refi · 75% ARV · 7.1% / 30yr
❌
FAILS DSCR
Min 1.30x · 7.1% / 30-yr DSCR · 75% of ARV
0.934x
DSCR
Monthly Cash Flow
−$88/mo
Cash-on-Cash Yr 1
-5.4%
$19,607 left in deal
Acquisition Event — First Close
Purchase Price
$187,600+
Rehab Budget
$13,250+
Closing Costs5% of purchase
$9,380=
Total Cash to First Close
$210,230Holding Period — 2 Months
Property Taxes$214/mo × 2$428
Insurance$167/mo × 2$335
HOA$38/mo × 2$76
Total Holding Costs$839
Contingency Reserve10% of rehab — held, not at first close$1,325
DSCR Refinance — Second Close
DSCR Loan Proceeds75% of ARV · 7.1% / 30yr
$198,750−
Origination Fee1 pts on $198,750
$1,988−
Closing Coststitle / appraisal / escrow
$3,975=
Net Cash Recovered
$192,788Deal Summary
Total Cash to First Close
$210,230+
Holding Costs (2 mo)
$839+
Contingency Reserve
$1,325−
Net Cash Recovered at Refi
$192,788=
Capital Left in Deal
$19,607Equity Position — Day 1 Post-Refi
ARV
$265,000−
DSCR Loan Balance
$198,750=
Equity in Property
$66,250 (25.0%)−
Capital Left in Deal
$19,607=
Value Created
$46,643$66,250 equity on $19,607 deployed = 3.4× equity leverage
Monthly Income & Expenses — Post-DSCR
Gross Rent
$1,894−
Property Taxes
$214−
Insurance
$167−
Maintenance (6% rent)
$114−
Management (6% rent)
$114−
HOA
$38=
OpEx Subtotal
$647=
Net Operating Income
$1,247−
DSCR P&I
$1,336/mo=
Net Cash Flow
−$88/moDSCR Ratios — Cash-Out vs No Cash-Out
Cash-Out Refi
75% of ARV — full LTV
Loan Amount$198,750
Monthly P&I$1,336/mo
Net Cash Flow−$88/mo
Cash Still Required−$19,607
DSCR
0.934x✗ Fail
Lender DSCR
1.079x✓ Pass
No Cash-Out
75.0% LTV — capped short $19,607
Loan Amount$198,750
Monthly P&I$1,336/mo
Net Cash Flow−$88/mo
Cash Still Required−$19,607
DSCR
0.934x✗ Fail
Lender DSCR
1.079x✓ Pass
Required Rent by DSCR Target
| Target | Rent Needed | vs Current |
|---|---|---|
| 1.00x | $1,995/mo | +$101 needed |
| 1.10x | $2,146/mo | +$252 needed |
| 1.20x | $2,298/mo | +$404 needed |
| 1.30x ← | $2,450/mo | +$556 needed |
| 1.40x | $2,602/mo | +$708 needed |