19167 Walnut Hills Dr, Conroe, TX 77302
1,478 sqft · built 1986 · Single Family (SFR)Analyzed Oct 25, 2026MX Group Partner$
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Scenario 1 — Flip
Hard money loan · sell at ARV after rehab
❌
FAILS FLIP
Min 20% ROI · 6-mo hold
-8.0%
Flip ROI
Cash to First Close
$35,931
what you bring day 1
Net Profit
−$4,576
Max Bid @ 20%
$312,203
−$4,576 profit ÷ $57,206 total invested = -8.0%
Acquisition Event — First Close
Hard Money Loan — 9.99% Interest-Only
Loan Amount
$331,090
Purchase (95% LTV)
$309,890
Rehab (100%)
$21,200
Loan-to-ARV
78.1%
Monthly Interest
$2,756/mo
Down Payment5% of $326,200 purchase
$16,310+
Origination Fee1 pts on $331,090 loan
$3,311+
Closing Costs5% of purchase
$16,310=
Cash to First Close
$35,931Holding Period — 6 Months
HML Interest9.99% IO · $2,756/mo × 6$16,538
Property Taxes$147/mo × 6$880
Insurance$290/mo × 6$1,737
Total Holding Costs$19,155
Contingency Reserve10% of rehab — held, not at first close$2,120
Sale Event — Second Close
Sale Price (ARV)
$424,000−
HML Principal Payofffull IO loan balance
$331,090−
Closing Costs3.5% of sale price
$14,840−
Realtor Commission6% of sale price
$25,440=
Net Proceeds to You
$52,630Deal Summary
Net Proceeds at Closing
$52,630−
Cash to First Close
$35,931−
Holding Costs (6 mo)
$19,155−
Contingency Reserve
$2,120=
NET PROFIT
−$4,576Max Bid by ROI Target
| ROI | Max Bid | vs Offer |
|---|---|---|
| 10% | $317,073 | −$9,127 |
| 15% | $314,621 | −$11,579 |
| 20% ← | $312,203 | −$13,997 |
| 25% | $309,820 | −$16,380 |
| 30% | $307,469 | −$18,731 |
Scenario 2 — HM→DSCR
Hard money @ 9.99% IO → DSCR refi · 75% ARV · 7.1% / 30yr
❌
FAILS DSCR
Min 1.30x · 7.1% / 30-yr DSCR · 75% of ARV
0.475x
DSCR
Monthly Cash Flow
−$1,121/mo
Cash-on-Cash Yr 1
-20.1%
$67,066 left in deal
Acquisition Event — First Close
Hard Money Loan — 9.99% Interest-Only
Loan Amount
$331,090
Purchase (95% LTV)
$309,890
Rehab (100%)
$21,200
Loan-to-ARV
78.1%
Monthly Interest
$2,756/mo
Down Payment5% of $326,200 purchase
$16,310+
Origination Fee1 pts on $331,090 loan
$3,311+
Closing Costs5% of purchase
$16,310=
Cash to First Close
$35,931Holding Period — 2 Months
HML Interest9.99% IO · $2,756/mo × 2$5,513
Property Taxes$147/mo × 2$293
Insurance$290/mo × 2$579
Total Holding Costs$6,385
Contingency Reserve10% of rehab — held, not at first close$2,120
DSCR Refinance — Second Close
DSCR Loan Proceeds75% of ARV · 7.1% / 30yr
$318,000−
HML Principal Payofffull IO loan balance
$331,090−
Origination Fee1 pts on $318,000
$3,180−
Closing Coststitle / appraisal / escrow
$6,360=
Cash to Bring to Close
−$22,630Deal Summary
Cash to First Close
$35,931+
Holding Costs (2 mo)
$6,385+
Contingency Reserve
$2,120−
Cash to Bring at Refi
+$22,630=
Capital Left in Deal
$67,066Equity Position — Day 1 Post-Refi
ARV
$424,000−
DSCR Loan Balance
$318,000=
Equity in Property
$106,000 (25.0%)−
Capital Left in Deal
$67,066=
Value Created
$38,934$106,000 equity on $67,066 deployed = 1.6× equity leverage
Monthly Income & Expenses — Post-DSCR
Gross Rent
$1,650−
Property Taxes
$147−
Insurance
$290−
Maintenance (6% rent)
$99−
Management (6% rent)
$99=
OpEx Subtotal
$634=
Net Operating Income
$1,016−
DSCR P&I
$2,137/mo=
Net Cash Flow
−$1,121/moDSCR Ratios — Cash-Out vs No Cash-Out vs DSCR=1.0
Cash-Out Refi
75% of ARV — full LTV
Loan Amount$318,000
Monthly P&I$2,137/mo
Net Cash Flow−$1,121/mo
Cash Still Required−$22,630
DSCR
0.475x✗ Fail
Lender DSCR
0.641x✗ Fail
No Cash-Out
75.0% LTV — capped short $22,630
Loan Amount$318,000
Monthly P&I$2,137/mo
Net Cash Flow−$1,121/mo
Cash Still Required−$22,630
DSCR
0.475x✗ Fail
Lender DSCR
0.641x✗ Fail
DSCR = 1.00x
35.7% LTV — still short $184,466
Loan Amount$151,158
Monthly P&I$1,016/mo
Net Cash Flow$0/mo
Cash Still Required−$184,466
DSCR
1.000x✗ Fail
Lender DSCR
1.136x✓ Pass
Required Rent by DSCR Target
| Target | Rent Needed | vs Current |
|---|---|---|
| 1.00x | $2,924/mo | +$1,274 needed |
| 1.10x | $3,167/mo | +$1,517 needed |
| 1.20x | $3,410/mo | +$1,760 needed |
| 1.30x ← | $3,653/mo | +$2,003 needed |
| 1.40x | $3,896/mo | +$2,246 needed |
Scenario 3 — Cash→DSCR
All-cash purchase → DSCR refi · 75% ARV · 7.1% / 30yr
❌
FAILS DSCR
Min 1.30x · 7.1% / 30-yr DSCR · 75% of ARV
0.475x
DSCR
Monthly Cash Flow
−$1,121/mo
Cash-on-Cash Yr 1
-23.1%
$58,242 left in deal
Acquisition Event — First Close
Purchase Price
$326,200+
Rehab Budget
$21,200+
Closing Costs5% of purchase
$16,310=
Total Cash to First Close
$363,710Holding Period — 2 Months
Property Taxes$147/mo × 2$293
Insurance$290/mo × 2$579
Total Holding Costs$872
Contingency Reserve10% of rehab — held, not at first close$2,120
DSCR Refinance — Second Close
DSCR Loan Proceeds75% of ARV · 7.1% / 30yr
$318,000−
Origination Fee1 pts on $318,000
$3,180−
Closing Coststitle / appraisal / escrow
$6,360=
Net Cash Recovered
$308,460Deal Summary
Total Cash to First Close
$363,710+
Holding Costs (2 mo)
$872+
Contingency Reserve
$2,120−
Net Cash Recovered at Refi
$308,460=
Capital Left in Deal
$58,242Equity Position — Day 1 Post-Refi
ARV
$424,000−
DSCR Loan Balance
$318,000=
Equity in Property
$106,000 (25.0%)−
Capital Left in Deal
$58,242=
Value Created
$47,758$106,000 equity on $58,242 deployed = 1.8× equity leverage
Monthly Income & Expenses — Post-DSCR
Gross Rent
$1,650−
Property Taxes
$147−
Insurance
$290−
Maintenance (6% rent)
$99−
Management (6% rent)
$99=
OpEx Subtotal
$634=
Net Operating Income
$1,016−
DSCR P&I
$2,137/mo=
Net Cash Flow
−$1,121/moDSCR Ratios — Cash-Out vs No Cash-Out
Cash-Out Refi
75% of ARV — full LTV
Loan Amount$318,000
Monthly P&I$2,137/mo
Net Cash Flow−$1,121/mo
Cash Still Required−$58,242
DSCR
0.475x✗ Fail
Lender DSCR
0.641x✗ Fail
No Cash-Out
75.0% LTV — capped short $58,242
Loan Amount$318,000
Monthly P&I$2,137/mo
Net Cash Flow−$1,121/mo
Cash Still Required−$58,242
DSCR
0.475x✗ Fail
Lender DSCR
0.641x✗ Fail
Required Rent by DSCR Target
| Target | Rent Needed | vs Current |
|---|---|---|
| 1.00x | $2,924/mo | +$1,274 needed |
| 1.10x | $3,167/mo | +$1,517 needed |
| 1.20x | $3,410/mo | +$1,760 needed |
| 1.30x ← | $3,653/mo | +$2,003 needed |
| 1.40x | $3,896/mo | +$2,246 needed |