MMX Group/19167 Walnut Hills Dr, Conroe, TX 77302
Flip-3.9%✗
HM→DSCR0.476x✗
Cash→DSCR0.476x✗
New Deal

19167 Walnut Hills Dr, Conroe, TX 77302

1,478 sqft · built 1986 · Single Family (SFR)Analyzed Oct 25, 2026MX Group Partner
Flip ROI
-3.9%
FAIL
−$2,241 loss
6-mo hold · profit ÷ cash out
DSCR — 75% LTV
0.476x
FAIL
cash-out refi · NOI / debt service
DSCR — No Cash-Out
0.476x
FAIL
75.0% LTV · capped, short $20,635
Max Bid @ 20%
$312,203
FAIL
✗ $11,897 over max
Total Invested
$44,169
down + points + costs + holding, pre-refi
Cash Left in Deal
$64,804
after HM → DSCR cash-out refi
Value Generated
$78,700
ARV − purchase − rehab (instant equity)
Starting Equity %
25.0%
ARV − DSCR loan ÷ ARV, day 1 post-refi
$
$
$
$
$
$
Scenario 1 — Flip
Hard money loan · sell at ARV after rehab
❌
FAILS FLIP
Min 20% ROI · 6-mo hold
-3.9%
Flip ROI
Cash to First Close
$35,701
what you bring day 1
Net Profit
−$2,241
Max Bid @ 20%
$312,203
−$2,241 profit  ÷  $56,866 total invested  =  -3.9%
Acquisition Event — First Close
Hard Money Loan — 9.99% Interest-Only
Loan Amount
$329,095
Purchase (95% LTV)
$307,895
Rehab (100%)
$21,200
Loan-to-ARV
77.6%
Monthly Interest
$2,740/mo
Down Payment5% of $324,100 purchase
$16,205
+
Origination Fee1 pts on $329,095 loan
$3,291
+
Closing Costs5% of purchase
$16,205
=
Cash to First Close
$35,701
Holding Period — 6 Months
HML Interest9.99% IO · $2,740/mo × 6$16,438
Property Taxes$147/mo × 6$880
Insurance$288/mo × 6$1,727
Total Holding Costs$19,045
Contingency Reserve10% of rehab — held, not at first close$2,120
Sale Event — Second Close
Sale Price (ARV)
$424,000
−
HML Principal Payofffull IO loan balance
$329,095
−
Closing Costs3.5% of sale price
$14,840
−
Realtor Commission6% of sale price
$25,440
=
Net Proceeds to You
$54,625
Deal Summary
Net Proceeds at Closing
$54,625
−
Cash to First Close
$35,701
−
Holding Costs (6 mo)
$19,045
−
Contingency Reserve
$2,120
=
NET PROFIT
−$2,241
Max Bid by ROI Target
ROIMax Bidvs Offer
10%$317,073−$7,027
15%$314,621−$9,479
20% ←$312,203−$11,897
25%$309,820−$14,280
30%$307,469−$16,631
Scenario 2 — HM→DSCR
Hard money @ 9.99% IO → DSCR refi · 75% ARV · 7.1% / 30yr
❌
FAILS DSCR
Min 1.30x · 7.1% / 30-yr DSCR · 75% of ARV
0.476x
DSCR
Monthly Cash Flow
−$1,119/mo
Cash-on-Cash Yr 1
-20.7%
$64,804 left in deal
Acquisition Event — First Close
Hard Money Loan — 9.99% Interest-Only
Loan Amount
$329,095
Purchase (95% LTV)
$307,895
Rehab (100%)
$21,200
Loan-to-ARV
77.6%
Monthly Interest
$2,740/mo
Down Payment5% of $324,100 purchase
$16,205
+
Origination Fee1 pts on $329,095 loan
$3,291
+
Closing Costs5% of purchase
$16,205
=
Cash to First Close
$35,701
Holding Period — 2 Months
HML Interest9.99% IO · $2,740/mo × 2$5,479
Property Taxes$147/mo × 2$293
Insurance$288/mo × 2$576
Total Holding Costs$6,348
Contingency Reserve10% of rehab — held, not at first close$2,120
DSCR Refinance — Second Close
DSCR Loan Proceeds75% of ARV · 7.1% / 30yr
$318,000
−
HML Principal Payofffull IO loan balance
$329,095
−
Origination Fee1 pts on $318,000
$3,180
−
Closing Coststitle / appraisal / escrow
$6,360
=
Cash to Bring to Close
−$20,635
Deal Summary
Cash to First Close
$35,701
+
Holding Costs (2 mo)
$6,348
+
Contingency Reserve
$2,120
−
Cash to Bring at Refi
+$20,635
=
Capital Left in Deal
$64,804
Equity Position — Day 1 Post-Refi
ARV
$424,000
−
DSCR Loan Balance
$318,000
=
Equity in Property
$106,000 (25.0%)
−
Capital Left in Deal
$64,804
=
Value Created
$41,196
$106,000 equity on $64,804 deployed = 1.6× equity leverage
Monthly Income & Expenses — Post-DSCR
Gross Rent
$1,650
−
Property Taxes
$147
−
Insurance
$288
−
Maintenance (6% rent)
$99
−
Management (6% rent)
$99
=
OpEx Subtotal
$632
=
Net Operating Income
$1,018
−
DSCR P&I
$2,137/mo
=
Net Cash Flow
−$1,119/mo
DSCR Ratios — Cash-Out vs No Cash-Out vs DSCR=1.0
Cash-Out Refi
75% of ARV — full LTV
Loan Amount$318,000
Monthly P&I$2,137/mo
Net Cash Flow−$1,119/mo
Cash Still Required−$20,635
DSCR
0.476x✗ Fail
Lender DSCR
0.642x✗ Fail
No Cash-Out
75.0% LTV — capped short $20,635
Loan Amount$318,000
Monthly P&I$2,137/mo
Net Cash Flow−$1,119/mo
Cash Still Required−$20,635
DSCR
0.476x✗ Fail
Lender DSCR
0.642x✗ Fail
DSCR = 1.00x
35.7% LTV — still short $182,219
Loan Amount$151,419
Monthly P&I$1,018/mo
Net Cash Flow$0/mo
Cash Still Required−$182,219
DSCR
1.000x✗ Fail
Lender DSCR
1.136x✓ Pass
Required Rent by DSCR Target
TargetRent Neededvs Current
1.00x$2,922/mo+$1,272 needed
1.10x$3,165/mo+$1,515 needed
1.20x$3,408/mo+$1,758 needed
1.30x ←$3,651/mo+$2,001 needed
1.40x$3,894/mo+$2,244 needed
Scenario 3 — Cash→DSCR
All-cash purchase → DSCR refi · 75% ARV · 7.1% / 30yr
❌
FAILS DSCR
Min 1.30x · 7.1% / 30-yr DSCR · 75% of ARV
0.476x
DSCR
Monthly Cash Flow
−$1,119/mo
Cash-on-Cash Yr 1
-24.0%
$56,034 left in deal
Acquisition Event — First Close
Purchase Price
$324,100
+
Rehab Budget
$21,200
+
Closing Costs5% of purchase
$16,205
=
Total Cash to First Close
$361,505
Holding Period — 2 Months
Property Taxes$147/mo × 2$293
Insurance$288/mo × 2$576
Total Holding Costs$869
Contingency Reserve10% of rehab — held, not at first close$2,120
DSCR Refinance — Second Close
DSCR Loan Proceeds75% of ARV · 7.1% / 30yr
$318,000
−
Origination Fee1 pts on $318,000
$3,180
−
Closing Coststitle / appraisal / escrow
$6,360
=
Net Cash Recovered
$308,460
Deal Summary
Total Cash to First Close
$361,505
+
Holding Costs (2 mo)
$869
+
Contingency Reserve
$2,120
−
Net Cash Recovered at Refi
$308,460
=
Capital Left in Deal
$56,034
Equity Position — Day 1 Post-Refi
ARV
$424,000
−
DSCR Loan Balance
$318,000
=
Equity in Property
$106,000 (25.0%)
−
Capital Left in Deal
$56,034
=
Value Created
$49,966
$106,000 equity on $56,034 deployed = 1.9× equity leverage
Monthly Income & Expenses — Post-DSCR
Gross Rent
$1,650
−
Property Taxes
$147
−
Insurance
$288
−
Maintenance (6% rent)
$99
−
Management (6% rent)
$99
=
OpEx Subtotal
$632
=
Net Operating Income
$1,018
−
DSCR P&I
$2,137/mo
=
Net Cash Flow
−$1,119/mo
DSCR Ratios — Cash-Out vs No Cash-Out
Cash-Out Refi
75% of ARV — full LTV
Loan Amount$318,000
Monthly P&I$2,137/mo
Net Cash Flow−$1,119/mo
Cash Still Required−$56,034
DSCR
0.476x✗ Fail
Lender DSCR
0.642x✗ Fail
No Cash-Out
75.0% LTV — capped short $56,034
Loan Amount$318,000
Monthly P&I$2,137/mo
Net Cash Flow−$1,119/mo
Cash Still Required−$56,034
DSCR
0.476x✗ Fail
Lender DSCR
0.642x✗ Fail
Required Rent by DSCR Target
TargetRent Neededvs Current
1.00x$2,922/mo+$1,272 needed
1.10x$3,165/mo+$1,515 needed
1.20x$3,408/mo+$1,758 needed
1.30x ←$3,651/mo+$2,001 needed
1.40x$3,894/mo+$2,244 needed
30-Year Hold Projection
Click to expand
DSCR loan $318,000 @ 7.1% · 3% rent growth · Via Hard Money · Via All Cash (same DSCR loan)
19167 Walnut Hills Dr, Conroe, TX 77302 — MX Analyzer