16130 Abberton Hill Dr, Spring, TX 77379
4bd / 3.5ba · 3,345 sqft · built 1988 · Single Family (SFR)Analyzed Oct 27, 2026MX Group Partner$
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Scenario 1 — Flip
Hard money loan · sell at ARV after rehab
✅
PASSES FLIP
Min 20% ROI · 6-mo hold
46.0%
Flip ROI
Cash to First Close
$34,795
what you bring day 1
Net Profit
$27,004
Max Bid @ 20%
$329,041
$27,004 profit ÷ $58,686 total invested = 46.0%
Acquisition Event — First Close
Hard Money Loan — 9.99% Interest-Only
Loan Amount
$322,465
Purchase (95% LTV)
$299,915
Rehab (100%)
$22,550
Loan-to-ARV
71.5%
Monthly Interest
$2,685/mo
Down Payment5% of $315,700 purchase
$15,785+
Origination Fee1 pts on $322,465 loan
$3,225+
Closing Costs5% of purchase
$15,785=
Cash to First Close
$34,795Holding Period — 6 Months
HML Interest9.99% IO · $2,685/mo × 6$16,107
Property Taxes$619/mo × 6$3,712
Insurance$282/mo × 6$1,691
HOA$21/mo × 6$126
Total Holding Costs$21,636
Contingency Reserve10% of rehab — held, not at first close$2,255
Sale Event — Second Close
Sale Price (ARV)
$451,000−
HML Principal Payofffull IO loan balance
$322,465−
Closing Costs3.5% of sale price
$15,785−
Realtor Commission6% of sale price
$27,060=
Net Proceeds to You
$85,690Deal Summary
Net Proceeds at Closing
$85,690−
Cash to First Close
$34,795−
Holding Costs (6 mo)
$21,636−
Contingency Reserve
$2,255=
NET PROFIT
$27,004Max Bid by ROI Target
| ROI | Max Bid | vs Offer |
|---|---|---|
| 10% | $334,435 | ✓ ok |
| 15% | $331,719 | ✓ ok |
| 20% ← | $329,041 | ✓ ok |
| 25% | $326,401 | ✓ ok |
| 30% | $323,798 | ✓ ok |
Scenario 2 — HM→DSCR
Hard money @ 9.99% IO → DSCR refi · 75% ARV · 7.1% / 30yr
❌
FAILS DSCR
Min 1.30x · 7.1% / 30-yr DSCR · 75% of ARV
0.622x
DSCR
Monthly Cash Flow
−$858/mo
Cash-on-Cash Yr 1
-26.7%
$38,624 left in deal
Acquisition Event — First Close
Hard Money Loan — 9.99% Interest-Only
Loan Amount
$322,465
Purchase (95% LTV)
$299,915
Rehab (100%)
$22,550
Loan-to-ARV
71.5%
Monthly Interest
$2,685/mo
Down Payment5% of $315,700 purchase
$15,785+
Origination Fee1 pts on $322,465 loan
$3,225+
Closing Costs5% of purchase
$15,785=
Cash to First Close
$34,795Holding Period — 2 Months
HML Interest9.99% IO · $2,685/mo × 2$5,369
Property Taxes$619/mo × 2$1,237
Insurance$282/mo × 2$564
HOA$21/mo × 2$42
Total Holding Costs$7,212
Contingency Reserve10% of rehab — held, not at first close$2,255
DSCR Refinance — Second Close
DSCR Loan Proceeds75% of ARV · 7.1% / 30yr
$338,250−
HML Principal Payofffull IO loan balance
$322,465−
Origination Fee1 pts on $338,250
$3,383−
Closing Coststitle / appraisal / escrow
$6,765=
Cash Back to You
+$5,638Deal Summary
Cash to First Close
$34,795+
Holding Costs (2 mo)
$7,212+
Contingency Reserve
$2,255−
Cash Back at Refi
−$5,638=
Capital Left in Deal
$38,624Equity Position — Day 1 Post-Refi
ARV
$451,000−
DSCR Loan Balance
$338,250=
Equity in Property
$112,750 (25.0%)−
Capital Left in Deal
$38,624=
Value Created
$74,126$112,750 equity on $38,624 deployed = 2.9× equity leverage
Monthly Income & Expenses — Post-DSCR
Gross Rent
$2,655−
Property Taxes
$619−
Insurance
$282−
Maintenance (6% rent)
$159−
Management (6% rent)
$159−
HOA
$21=
OpEx Subtotal
$1,240=
Net Operating Income
$1,415−
DSCR P&I
$2,273/mo=
Net Cash Flow
−$858/moDSCR Ratios — Cash-Out vs No Cash-Out vs DSCR=1.0
Cash-Out Refi
75% of ARV — full LTV
Loan Amount$338,250
Monthly P&I$2,273/mo
Net Cash Flow−$858/mo
Cash Back at Refi+$5,638
DSCR
0.622x✗ Fail
Lender DSCR
0.831x✗ Fail
No Cash-Out
73.7% LTV — breakeven refi
Loan Amount$332,438
Monthly P&I$2,234/mo
Net Cash Flow−$819/mo
Cash Back at Refi+$0
DSCR
0.633x✗ Fail
Lender DSCR
0.841x✗ Fail
DSCR = 1.00x
46.7% LTV — still short $118,247
Loan Amount$210,534
Monthly P&I$1,415/mo
Net Cash Flow$0/mo
Cash Still Required−$118,247
DSCR
1.000x✗ Fail
Lender DSCR
1.136x✓ Pass
Required Rent by DSCR Target
| Target | Rent Needed | vs Current |
|---|---|---|
| 1.00x | $3,630/mo | +$975 needed |
| 1.10x | $3,889/mo | +$1,234 needed |
| 1.20x | $4,147/mo | +$1,492 needed |
| 1.30x ← | $4,405/mo | +$1,750 needed |
| 1.40x | $4,664/mo | +$2,009 needed |
Scenario 3 — Cash→DSCR
All-cash purchase → DSCR refi · 75% ARV · 7.1% / 30yr
❌
FAILS DSCR
Min 1.30x · 7.1% / 30-yr DSCR · 75% of ARV
0.622x
DSCR
Monthly Cash Flow
−$858/mo
Cash-on-Cash Yr 1
-34.3%
$30,031 left in deal
Acquisition Event — First Close
Purchase Price
$315,700+
Rehab Budget
$22,550+
Closing Costs5% of purchase
$15,785=
Total Cash to First Close
$354,035Holding Period — 2 Months
Property Taxes$619/mo × 2$1,237
Insurance$282/mo × 2$564
HOA$21/mo × 2$42
Total Holding Costs$1,843
Contingency Reserve10% of rehab — held, not at first close$2,255
DSCR Refinance — Second Close
DSCR Loan Proceeds75% of ARV · 7.1% / 30yr
$338,250−
Origination Fee1 pts on $338,250
$3,383−
Closing Coststitle / appraisal / escrow
$6,765=
Net Cash Recovered
$328,103Deal Summary
Total Cash to First Close
$354,035+
Holding Costs (2 mo)
$1,843+
Contingency Reserve
$2,255−
Net Cash Recovered at Refi
$328,103=
Capital Left in Deal
$30,031Equity Position — Day 1 Post-Refi
ARV
$451,000−
DSCR Loan Balance
$338,250=
Equity in Property
$112,750 (25.0%)−
Capital Left in Deal
$30,031=
Value Created
$82,719$112,750 equity on $30,031 deployed = 3.8× equity leverage
Monthly Income & Expenses — Post-DSCR
Gross Rent
$2,655−
Property Taxes
$619−
Insurance
$282−
Maintenance (6% rent)
$159−
Management (6% rent)
$159−
HOA
$21=
OpEx Subtotal
$1,240=
Net Operating Income
$1,415−
DSCR P&I
$2,273/mo=
Net Cash Flow
−$858/moDSCR Ratios — Cash-Out vs No Cash-Out
Cash-Out Refi
75% of ARV — full LTV
Loan Amount$338,250
Monthly P&I$2,273/mo
Net Cash Flow−$858/mo
Cash Still Required−$30,031
DSCR
0.622x✗ Fail
Lender DSCR
0.831x✗ Fail
No Cash-Out
75.0% LTV — capped short $30,031
Loan Amount$338,250
Monthly P&I$2,273/mo
Net Cash Flow−$858/mo
Cash Still Required−$30,031
DSCR
0.622x✗ Fail
Lender DSCR
0.831x✗ Fail
Required Rent by DSCR Target
| Target | Rent Needed | vs Current |
|---|---|---|
| 1.00x | $3,630/mo | +$975 needed |
| 1.10x | $3,889/mo | +$1,234 needed |
| 1.20x | $4,147/mo | +$1,492 needed |
| 1.30x ← | $4,405/mo | +$1,750 needed |
| 1.40x | $4,664/mo | +$2,009 needed |