15627 Mckay Rd, Willis, TX 77378
3bd / 2ba · 2,082 sqft · built 1970 · Single Family (SFR)Analyzed Oct 25, 2026MX Group Partner$
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Scenario 1 — Flip
Hard money loan · sell at ARV after rehab
✅
PASSES FLIP
Min 20% ROI · 6-mo hold
317.1%
Flip ROI
Cash to First Close
$32,643
what you bring day 1
Net Profit
$172,109
Max Bid @ 20%
$436,314
$172,109 profit ÷ $54,276 total invested = 317.1%
Acquisition Event — First Close
Hard Money Loan — 9.99% Interest-Only
Loan Amount
$310,280
Purchase (95% LTV)
$280,630
Rehab (100%)
$29,650
Loan-to-ARV
52.3%
Monthly Interest
$2,583/mo
Down Payment5% of $295,400 purchase
$14,770+
Origination Fee1 pts on $310,280 loan
$3,103+
Closing Costs5% of purchase
$14,770=
Cash to First Close
$32,643Holding Period — 6 Months
HML Interest9.99% IO · $2,583/mo × 6$15,498
Property Taxes$257/mo × 6$1,544
Insurance$271/mo × 6$1,625
Total Holding Costs$18,668
Contingency Reserve10% of rehab — held, not at first close$2,965
Sale Event — Second Close
Sale Price (ARV)
$593,000−
HML Principal Payofffull IO loan balance
$310,280−
Closing Costs3.5% of sale price
$20,755−
Realtor Commission6% of sale price
$35,580=
Net Proceeds to You
$226,385Deal Summary
Net Proceeds at Closing
$226,385−
Cash to First Close
$32,643−
Holding Costs (6 mo)
$18,668−
Contingency Reserve
$2,965=
NET PROFIT
$172,109Max Bid by ROI Target
| ROI | Max Bid | vs Offer |
|---|---|---|
| 10% | $443,148 | ✓ ok |
| 15% | $439,707 | ✓ ok |
| 20% ← | $436,314 | ✓ ok |
| 25% | $432,969 | ✓ ok |
| 30% | $429,671 | ✓ ok |
Scenario 2 — HM→DSCR
Hard money @ 9.99% IO → DSCR refi · 75% ARV · 7.1% / 30yr
❌
FAILS DSCR
Min 1.30x · 7.1% / 30-yr DSCR · 75% of ARV
0.268x
DSCR
Monthly Cash Flow
−$2,187/mo
Cash-on-Cash Yr 1
N/A
−$79,297 left in deal
Acquisition Event — First Close
Hard Money Loan — 9.99% Interest-Only
Loan Amount
$310,280
Purchase (95% LTV)
$280,630
Rehab (100%)
$29,650
Loan-to-ARV
52.3%
Monthly Interest
$2,583/mo
Down Payment5% of $295,400 purchase
$14,770+
Origination Fee1 pts on $310,280 loan
$3,103+
Closing Costs5% of purchase
$14,770=
Cash to First Close
$32,643Holding Period — 2 Months
HML Interest9.99% IO · $2,583/mo × 2$5,166
Property Taxes$257/mo × 2$515
Insurance$271/mo × 2$542
Total Holding Costs$6,223
Contingency Reserve10% of rehab — held, not at first close$2,965
DSCR Refinance — Second Close
DSCR Loan Proceeds75% of ARV · 7.1% / 30yr
$444,750−
HML Principal Payofffull IO loan balance
$310,280−
Origination Fee1 pts on $444,750
$4,448−
Closing Coststitle / appraisal / escrow
$8,895=
Cash Back to You
+$121,128Deal Summary
Cash to First Close
$32,643+
Holding Costs (2 mo)
$6,223+
Contingency Reserve
$2,965−
Cash Back at Refi
−$121,128=
Capital Left in Deal
−$79,297Equity Position — Day 1 Post-Refi
ARV
$593,000−
DSCR Loan Balance
$444,750=
Equity in Property
$148,250 (25.0%)−
Capital Left in Deal
−$79,297=
Value Created
$227,547Monthly Income & Expenses — Post-DSCR
Gross Rent
$1,511−
Property Taxes
$257−
Insurance
$271−
Maintenance (6% rent)
$91−
Management (6% rent)
$91=
OpEx Subtotal
$710=
Net Operating Income
$801−
DSCR P&I
$2,989/mo=
Net Cash Flow
−$2,187/moDSCR Ratios — Cash-Out vs No Cash-Out vs DSCR=1.0
Cash-Out Refi
75% of ARV — full LTV
Loan Amount$444,750
Monthly P&I$2,989/mo
Net Cash Flow−$2,187/mo
Cash Back at Refi+$121,128
DSCR
0.268x✗ Fail
Lender DSCR
0.430x✗ Fail
No Cash-Out
53.9% LTV — breakeven refi
Loan Amount$319,876
Monthly P&I$2,150/mo
Net Cash Flow−$1,348/mo
Cash Back at Refi+$0
DSCR
0.373x✗ Fail
Lender DSCR
0.564x✗ Fail
DSCR = 1.00x
20.1% LTV — still short $194,597
Loan Amount$119,261
Monthly P&I$801/mo
Net Cash Flow$0/mo
Cash Still Required−$194,597
DSCR
1.000x✗ Fail
Lender DSCR
1.136x✓ Pass
Required Rent by DSCR Target
| Target | Rent Needed | vs Current |
|---|---|---|
| 1.00x | $3,997/mo | +$2,486 needed |
| 1.10x | $4,336/mo | +$2,825 needed |
| 1.20x | $4,676/mo | +$3,165 needed |
| 1.30x ← | $5,016/mo | +$3,505 needed |
| 1.40x | $5,355/mo | +$3,844 needed |
Scenario 3 — Cash→DSCR
All-cash purchase → DSCR refi · 75% ARV · 7.1% / 30yr
❌
FAILS DSCR
Min 1.30x · 7.1% / 30-yr DSCR · 75% of ARV
0.268x
DSCR
Monthly Cash Flow
−$2,187/mo
Cash-on-Cash Yr 1
N/A
−$87,566 left in deal
Acquisition Event — First Close
Purchase Price
$295,400+
Rehab Budget
$29,650+
Closing Costs5% of purchase
$14,770=
Total Cash to First Close
$339,820Holding Period — 2 Months
Property Taxes$257/mo × 2$515
Insurance$271/mo × 2$542
Total Holding Costs$1,056
Contingency Reserve10% of rehab — held, not at first close$2,965
DSCR Refinance — Second Close
DSCR Loan Proceeds75% of ARV · 7.1% / 30yr
$444,750−
Origination Fee1 pts on $444,750
$4,448−
Closing Coststitle / appraisal / escrow
$8,895=
Net Cash Recovered
$431,408Deal Summary
Total Cash to First Close
$339,820+
Holding Costs (2 mo)
$1,056+
Contingency Reserve
$2,965−
Net Cash Recovered at Refi
$431,408=
Capital Left in Deal
−$87,566Equity Position — Day 1 Post-Refi
ARV
$593,000−
DSCR Loan Balance
$444,750=
Equity in Property
$148,250 (25.0%)−
Capital Left in Deal
−$87,566=
Value Created
$235,816Monthly Income & Expenses — Post-DSCR
Gross Rent
$1,511−
Property Taxes
$257−
Insurance
$271−
Maintenance (6% rent)
$91−
Management (6% rent)
$91=
OpEx Subtotal
$710=
Net Operating Income
$801−
DSCR P&I
$2,989/mo=
Net Cash Flow
−$2,187/moDSCR Ratios — Cash-Out vs No Cash-Out
Cash-Out Refi
75% of ARV — full LTV
Loan Amount$444,750
Monthly P&I$2,989/mo
Net Cash Flow−$2,187/mo
Cash Back at Refi+$87,566
DSCR
0.268x✗ Fail
Lender DSCR
0.430x✗ Fail
No Cash-Out
59.8% LTV — breakeven refi
Loan Amount$354,476
Monthly P&I$2,382/mo
Net Cash Flow−$1,581/mo
Cash Back at Refi+$0
DSCR
0.336x✗ Fail
Lender DSCR
0.519x✗ Fail
Required Rent by DSCR Target
| Target | Rent Needed | vs Current |
|---|---|---|
| 1.00x | $3,997/mo | +$2,486 needed |
| 1.10x | $4,336/mo | +$2,825 needed |
| 1.20x | $4,676/mo | +$3,165 needed |
| 1.30x ← | $5,016/mo | +$3,505 needed |
| 1.40x | $5,355/mo | +$3,844 needed |