1515 Saddlecreek Dr, Houston, TX 77090
4bd / 4ba · 3,297 sqft · built 1967 · Single Family (SFR)Analyzed Oct 25, 2026MX Group Partner$
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Scenario 1 — Flip
Hard money loan · sell at ARV after rehab
✅
PASSES FLIP
Min 20% ROI · 6-mo hold
32.2%
Flip ROI
Cash to First Close
$26,650
what you bring day 1
Net Profit
$14,934
Max Bid @ 20%
$246,489
$14,934 profit ÷ $46,341 total invested = 32.2%
Acquisition Event — First Close
Hard Money Loan — 9.99% Interest-Only
Loan Amount
$246,425
Purchase (95% LTV)
$229,425
Rehab (100%)
$17,000
Loan-to-ARV
72.5%
Monthly Interest
$2,051/mo
Down Payment5% of $241,500 purchase
$12,075+
Origination Fee1 pts on $246,425 loan
$2,500+
Closing Costs5% of purchase
$12,075=
Cash to First Close
$26,650Holding Period — 6 Months
HML Interest9.99% IO · $2,051/mo × 6$12,309
Property Taxes$411/mo × 6$2,464
Insurance$215/mo × 6$1,293
HOA$321/mo × 6$1,926
Total Holding Costs$17,991
Contingency Reserve10% of rehab — held, not at first close$1,700
Sale Event — Second Close
Sale Price (ARV)
$340,000−
HML Principal Payofffull IO loan balance
$246,425−
Closing Costs3.5% of sale price
$11,900−
Realtor Commission6% of sale price
$20,400=
Net Proceeds to You
$61,275Deal Summary
Net Proceeds at Closing
$61,275−
Cash to First Close
$26,650−
Holding Costs (6 mo)
$17,991−
Contingency Reserve
$1,700=
NET PROFIT
$14,934Max Bid by ROI Target
| ROI | Max Bid | vs Offer |
|---|---|---|
| 10% | $250,665 | ✓ ok |
| 15% | $248,562 | ✓ ok |
| 20% ← | $246,489 | ✓ ok |
| 25% | $244,445 | ✓ ok |
| 30% | $242,429 | ✓ ok |
Scenario 2 — HM→DSCR
Hard money @ 9.99% IO → DSCR refi · 75% ARV · 7.1% / 30yr
❌
FAILS DSCR
Min 1.30x · 7.1% / 30-yr DSCR · 75% of ARV
0.565x
DSCR
Monthly Cash Flow
−$746/mo
Cash-on-Cash Yr 1
-26.8%
$33,422 left in deal
Acquisition Event — First Close
Hard Money Loan — 9.99% Interest-Only
Loan Amount
$246,425
Purchase (95% LTV)
$229,425
Rehab (100%)
$17,000
Loan-to-ARV
72.5%
Monthly Interest
$2,051/mo
Down Payment5% of $241,500 purchase
$12,075+
Origination Fee1 pts on $246,425 loan
$2,500+
Closing Costs5% of purchase
$12,075=
Cash to First Close
$26,650Holding Period — 2 Months
HML Interest9.99% IO · $2,051/mo × 2$4,103
Property Taxes$411/mo × 2$821
Insurance$215/mo × 2$431
HOA$321/mo × 2$642
Total Holding Costs$5,997
Contingency Reserve10% of rehab — held, not at first close$1,700
DSCR Refinance — Second Close
DSCR Loan Proceeds75% of ARV · 7.1% / 30yr
$255,000−
HML Principal Payofffull IO loan balance
$246,425−
Origination Fee1 pts on $255,000
$2,550−
Closing Coststitle / appraisal / escrow
$5,100=
Cash Back to You
+$925Deal Summary
Cash to First Close
$26,650+
Holding Costs (2 mo)
$5,997+
Contingency Reserve
$1,700−
Cash Back at Refi
−$925=
Capital Left in Deal
$33,422Equity Position — Day 1 Post-Refi
ARV
$340,000−
DSCR Loan Balance
$255,000=
Equity in Property
$85,000 (25.0%)−
Capital Left in Deal
$33,422=
Value Created
$51,578$85,000 equity on $33,422 deployed = 2.5× equity leverage
Monthly Income & Expenses — Post-DSCR
Gross Rent
$2,176−
Property Taxes
$411−
Insurance
$215−
Maintenance (6% rent)
$131−
Management (6% rent)
$131−
HOA
$321=
OpEx Subtotal
$1,208=
Net Operating Income
$968−
DSCR P&I
$1,714/mo=
Net Cash Flow
−$746/moDSCR Ratios — Cash-Out vs No Cash-Out vs DSCR=1.0
Cash-Out Refi
75% of ARV — full LTV
Loan Amount$255,000
Monthly P&I$1,714/mo
Net Cash Flow−$746/mo
Cash Back at Refi+$925
DSCR
0.565x✗ Fail
Lender DSCR
0.818x✗ Fail
No Cash-Out
74.7% LTV — breakeven refi
Loan Amount$254,046
Monthly P&I$1,707/mo
Net Cash Flow−$739/mo
Cash Back at Refi+$0
DSCR
0.567x✗ Fail
Lender DSCR
0.820x✗ Fail
DSCR = 1.00x
42.4% LTV — still short $106,723
Loan Amount$144,023
Monthly P&I$968/mo
Net Cash Flow$0/mo
Cash Still Required−$106,723
DSCR
1.000x✗ Fail
Lender DSCR
1.136x✓ Pass
Required Rent by DSCR Target
| Target | Rent Needed | vs Current |
|---|---|---|
| 1.00x | $3,024/mo | +$848 needed |
| 1.10x | $3,218/mo | +$1,042 needed |
| 1.20x | $3,413/mo | +$1,237 needed |
| 1.30x ← | $3,608/mo | +$1,432 needed |
| 1.40x | $3,802/mo | +$1,626 needed |
Scenario 3 — Cash→DSCR
All-cash purchase → DSCR refi · 75% ARV · 7.1% / 30yr
❌
FAILS DSCR
Min 1.30x · 7.1% / 30-yr DSCR · 75% of ARV
0.565x
DSCR
Monthly Cash Flow
−$746/mo
Cash-on-Cash Yr 1
-33.4%
$26,819 left in deal
Acquisition Event — First Close
Purchase Price
$241,500+
Rehab Budget
$17,000+
Closing Costs5% of purchase
$12,075=
Total Cash to First Close
$270,575Holding Period — 2 Months
Property Taxes$411/mo × 2$821
Insurance$215/mo × 2$431
HOA$321/mo × 2$642
Total Holding Costs$1,894
Contingency Reserve10% of rehab — held, not at first close$1,700
DSCR Refinance — Second Close
DSCR Loan Proceeds75% of ARV · 7.1% / 30yr
$255,000−
Origination Fee1 pts on $255,000
$2,550−
Closing Coststitle / appraisal / escrow
$5,100=
Net Cash Recovered
$247,350Deal Summary
Total Cash to First Close
$270,575+
Holding Costs (2 mo)
$1,894+
Contingency Reserve
$1,700−
Net Cash Recovered at Refi
$247,350=
Capital Left in Deal
$26,819Equity Position — Day 1 Post-Refi
ARV
$340,000−
DSCR Loan Balance
$255,000=
Equity in Property
$85,000 (25.0%)−
Capital Left in Deal
$26,819=
Value Created
$58,181$85,000 equity on $26,819 deployed = 3.2× equity leverage
Monthly Income & Expenses — Post-DSCR
Gross Rent
$2,176−
Property Taxes
$411−
Insurance
$215−
Maintenance (6% rent)
$131−
Management (6% rent)
$131−
HOA
$321=
OpEx Subtotal
$1,208=
Net Operating Income
$968−
DSCR P&I
$1,714/mo=
Net Cash Flow
−$746/moDSCR Ratios — Cash-Out vs No Cash-Out
Cash-Out Refi
75% of ARV — full LTV
Loan Amount$255,000
Monthly P&I$1,714/mo
Net Cash Flow−$746/mo
Cash Still Required−$26,819
DSCR
0.565x✗ Fail
Lender DSCR
0.818x✗ Fail
No Cash-Out
75.0% LTV — capped short $26,819
Loan Amount$255,000
Monthly P&I$1,714/mo
Net Cash Flow−$746/mo
Cash Still Required−$26,819
DSCR
0.565x✗ Fail
Lender DSCR
0.818x✗ Fail
Required Rent by DSCR Target
| Target | Rent Needed | vs Current |
|---|---|---|
| 1.00x | $3,024/mo | +$848 needed |
| 1.10x | $3,218/mo | +$1,042 needed |
| 1.20x | $3,413/mo | +$1,237 needed |
| 1.30x ← | $3,608/mo | +$1,432 needed |
| 1.40x | $3,802/mo | +$1,626 needed |