14819 Winterfair Dr, Houston, TX 77082
4bd / 2.5ba · 2,957 sqft · built 2001 · Single Family (SFR)Analyzed Oct 25, 2026MX Group Partner$
$
$
$
$
$
Scenario 1 — Flip
Hard money loan · sell at ARV after rehab
❌
FAILS FLIP
Min 20% ROI · 6-mo hold
-3.3%
Flip ROI
Cash to First Close
$30,459
what you bring day 1
Net Profit
−$1,672
Max Bid @ 20%
$266,113
−$1,672 profit ÷ $51,072 total invested = -3.3%
Acquisition Event — First Close
Hard Money Loan — 9.99% Interest-Only
Loan Amount
$280,925
Purchase (95% LTV)
$262,675
Rehab (100%)
$18,250
Loan-to-ARV
77.0%
Monthly Interest
$2,339/mo
Down Payment5% of $276,500 purchase
$13,825+
Origination Fee1 pts on $280,925 loan
$2,809+
Closing Costs5% of purchase
$13,825=
Cash to First Close
$30,459Holding Period — 6 Months
HML Interest9.99% IO · $2,339/mo × 6$14,032
Property Taxes$487/mo × 6$2,922
Insurance$246/mo × 6$1,474
HOA$60/mo × 6$360
Total Holding Costs$18,788
Contingency Reserve10% of rehab — held, not at first close$1,825
Sale Event — Second Close
Sale Price (ARV)
$365,000−
HML Principal Payofffull IO loan balance
$280,925−
Closing Costs3.5% of sale price
$12,775−
Realtor Commission6% of sale price
$21,900=
Net Proceeds to You
$49,400Deal Summary
Net Proceeds at Closing
$49,400−
Cash to First Close
$30,459−
Holding Costs (6 mo)
$18,788−
Contingency Reserve
$1,825=
NET PROFIT
−$1,672Max Bid by ROI Target
| ROI | Max Bid | vs Offer |
|---|---|---|
| 10% | $270,491 | −$6,009 |
| 15% | $268,286 | −$8,214 |
| 20% ← | $266,113 | −$10,387 |
| 25% | $263,970 | −$12,530 |
| 30% | $261,857 | −$14,643 |
Scenario 2 — HM→DSCR
Hard money @ 9.99% IO → DSCR refi · 75% ARV · 7.1% / 30yr
❌
FAILS DSCR
Min 1.30x · 7.1% / 30-yr DSCR · 75% of ARV
0.850x
DSCR
Monthly Cash Flow
−$276/mo
Cash-on-Cash Yr 1
-6.1%
$53,934 left in deal
Acquisition Event — First Close
Hard Money Loan — 9.99% Interest-Only
Loan Amount
$280,925
Purchase (95% LTV)
$262,675
Rehab (100%)
$18,250
Loan-to-ARV
77.0%
Monthly Interest
$2,339/mo
Down Payment5% of $276,500 purchase
$13,825+
Origination Fee1 pts on $280,925 loan
$2,809+
Closing Costs5% of purchase
$13,825=
Cash to First Close
$30,459Holding Period — 2 Months
HML Interest9.99% IO · $2,339/mo × 2$4,677
Property Taxes$487/mo × 2$974
Insurance$246/mo × 2$491
HOA$60/mo × 2$120
Total Holding Costs$6,263
Contingency Reserve10% of rehab — held, not at first close$1,825
DSCR Refinance — Second Close
DSCR Loan Proceeds75% of ARV · 7.1% / 30yr
$273,750−
HML Principal Payofffull IO loan balance
$280,925−
Origination Fee1 pts on $273,750
$2,738−
Closing Coststitle / appraisal / escrow
$5,475=
Cash to Bring to Close
−$15,388Deal Summary
Cash to First Close
$30,459+
Holding Costs (2 mo)
$6,263+
Contingency Reserve
$1,825−
Cash to Bring at Refi
+$15,388=
Capital Left in Deal
$53,934Equity Position — Day 1 Post-Refi
ARV
$365,000−
DSCR Loan Balance
$273,750=
Equity in Property
$91,250 (25.0%)−
Capital Left in Deal
$53,934=
Value Created
$37,316$91,250 equity on $53,934 deployed = 1.7× equity leverage
Monthly Income & Expenses — Post-DSCR
Gross Rent
$2,678−
Property Taxes
$487−
Insurance
$246−
Maintenance (6% rent)
$161−
Management (6% rent)
$161−
HOA
$60=
OpEx Subtotal
$1,114=
Net Operating Income
$1,564−
DSCR P&I
$1,840/mo=
Net Cash Flow
−$276/moDSCR Ratios — Cash-Out vs No Cash-Out vs DSCR=1.0
Cash-Out Refi
75% of ARV — full LTV
Loan Amount$273,750
Monthly P&I$1,840/mo
Net Cash Flow−$276/mo
Cash Still Required−$15,388
DSCR
0.850x✗ Fail
Lender DSCR
1.017x✓ Pass
No Cash-Out
75.0% LTV — capped short $15,388
Loan Amount$273,750
Monthly P&I$1,840/mo
Net Cash Flow−$276/mo
Cash Still Required−$15,388
DSCR
0.850x✗ Fail
Lender DSCR
1.017x✓ Pass
DSCR = 1.00x
63.8% LTV — still short $55,178
Loan Amount$232,729
Monthly P&I$1,564/mo
Net Cash Flow$0/mo
Cash Still Required−$55,178
DSCR
1.000x✗ Fail
Lender DSCR
1.136x✓ Pass
Required Rent by DSCR Target
| Target | Rent Needed | vs Current |
|---|---|---|
| 1.00x | $2,991/mo | +$313 needed |
| 1.10x | $3,200/mo | +$522 needed |
| 1.20x | $3,409/mo | +$731 needed |
| 1.30x ← | $3,618/mo | +$940 needed |
| 1.40x | $3,827/mo | +$1,149 needed |
Scenario 3 — Cash→DSCR
All-cash purchase → DSCR refi · 75% ARV · 7.1% / 30yr
❌
FAILS DSCR
Min 1.30x · 7.1% / 30-yr DSCR · 75% of ARV
0.850x
DSCR
Monthly Cash Flow
−$276/mo
Cash-on-Cash Yr 1
-7.1%
$46,448 left in deal
Acquisition Event — First Close
Purchase Price
$276,500+
Rehab Budget
$18,250+
Closing Costs5% of purchase
$13,825=
Total Cash to First Close
$308,575Holding Period — 2 Months
Property Taxes$487/mo × 2$974
Insurance$246/mo × 2$491
HOA$60/mo × 2$120
Total Holding Costs$1,585
Contingency Reserve10% of rehab — held, not at first close$1,825
DSCR Refinance — Second Close
DSCR Loan Proceeds75% of ARV · 7.1% / 30yr
$273,750−
Origination Fee1 pts on $273,750
$2,738−
Closing Coststitle / appraisal / escrow
$5,475=
Net Cash Recovered
$265,538Deal Summary
Total Cash to First Close
$308,575+
Holding Costs (2 mo)
$1,585+
Contingency Reserve
$1,825−
Net Cash Recovered at Refi
$265,538=
Capital Left in Deal
$46,448Equity Position — Day 1 Post-Refi
ARV
$365,000−
DSCR Loan Balance
$273,750=
Equity in Property
$91,250 (25.0%)−
Capital Left in Deal
$46,448=
Value Created
$44,802$91,250 equity on $46,448 deployed = 2.0× equity leverage
Monthly Income & Expenses — Post-DSCR
Gross Rent
$2,678−
Property Taxes
$487−
Insurance
$246−
Maintenance (6% rent)
$161−
Management (6% rent)
$161−
HOA
$60=
OpEx Subtotal
$1,114=
Net Operating Income
$1,564−
DSCR P&I
$1,840/mo=
Net Cash Flow
−$276/moDSCR Ratios — Cash-Out vs No Cash-Out
Cash-Out Refi
75% of ARV — full LTV
Loan Amount$273,750
Monthly P&I$1,840/mo
Net Cash Flow−$276/mo
Cash Still Required−$46,448
DSCR
0.850x✗ Fail
Lender DSCR
1.017x✓ Pass
No Cash-Out
75.0% LTV — capped short $46,448
Loan Amount$273,750
Monthly P&I$1,840/mo
Net Cash Flow−$276/mo
Cash Still Required−$46,448
DSCR
0.850x✗ Fail
Lender DSCR
1.017x✓ Pass
Required Rent by DSCR Target
| Target | Rent Needed | vs Current |
|---|---|---|
| 1.00x | $2,991/mo | +$313 needed |
| 1.10x | $3,200/mo | +$522 needed |
| 1.20x | $3,409/mo | +$731 needed |
| 1.30x ← | $3,618/mo | +$940 needed |
| 1.40x | $3,827/mo | +$1,149 needed |