127 Wild Garden Ct, Conroe, TX 77304
4bd / 3ba · 2,529 sqft · built 2017 · Single Family (SFR)Analyzed Oct 25, 2026MX Group Partner$
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Scenario 1 — Flip
Hard money loan · sell at ARV after rehab
✅
PASSES FLIP
Min 20% ROI · 6-mo hold
28.7%
Flip ROI
Cash to First Close
$34,251
what you bring day 1
Net Profit
$17,492
Max Bid @ 20%
$315,445
$17,492 profit ÷ $60,883 total invested = 28.7%
Acquisition Event — First Close
Hard Money Loan — 9.99% Interest-Only
Loan Amount
$317,110
Purchase (95% LTV)
$295,260
Rehab (100%)
$21,850
Loan-to-ARV
72.6%
Monthly Interest
$2,640/mo
Down Payment5% of $310,800 purchase
$15,540+
Origination Fee1 pts on $317,110 loan
$3,171+
Closing Costs5% of purchase
$15,540=
Cash to First Close
$34,251Holding Period — 6 Months
HML Interest9.99% IO · $2,640/mo × 6$15,840
Property Taxes$1,076/mo × 6$6,458
Insurance$277/mo × 6$1,663
HOA$81/mo × 6$486
Total Holding Costs$24,447
Contingency Reserve10% of rehab — held, not at first close$2,185
Sale Event — Second Close
Sale Price (ARV)
$437,000−
HML Principal Payofffull IO loan balance
$317,110−
Closing Costs3.5% of sale price
$15,295−
Realtor Commission6% of sale price
$26,220=
Net Proceeds to You
$78,375Deal Summary
Net Proceeds at Closing
$78,375−
Cash to First Close
$34,251−
Holding Costs (6 mo)
$24,447−
Contingency Reserve
$2,185=
NET PROFIT
$17,492Max Bid by ROI Target
| ROI | Max Bid | vs Offer |
|---|---|---|
| 10% | $320,908 | ✓ ok |
| 15% | $318,157 | ✓ ok |
| 20% ← | $315,445 | ✓ ok |
| 25% | $312,771 | ✓ ok |
| 30% | $310,134 | −$666 |
Scenario 2 — HM→DSCR
Hard money @ 9.99% IO → DSCR refi · 75% ARV · 7.1% / 30yr
❌
FAILS DSCR
Min 1.30x · 7.1% / 30-yr DSCR · 75% of ARV
0.419x
DSCR
Monthly Cash Flow
−$1,279/mo
Cash-on-Cash Yr 1
-35.1%
$43,778 left in deal
Acquisition Event — First Close
Hard Money Loan — 9.99% Interest-Only
Loan Amount
$317,110
Purchase (95% LTV)
$295,260
Rehab (100%)
$21,850
Loan-to-ARV
72.6%
Monthly Interest
$2,640/mo
Down Payment5% of $310,800 purchase
$15,540+
Origination Fee1 pts on $317,110 loan
$3,171+
Closing Costs5% of purchase
$15,540=
Cash to First Close
$34,251Holding Period — 2 Months
HML Interest9.99% IO · $2,640/mo × 2$5,280
Property Taxes$1,076/mo × 2$2,153
Insurance$277/mo × 2$554
HOA$81/mo × 2$162
Total Holding Costs$8,149
Contingency Reserve10% of rehab — held, not at first close$2,185
DSCR Refinance — Second Close
DSCR Loan Proceeds75% of ARV · 7.1% / 30yr
$327,750−
HML Principal Payofffull IO loan balance
$317,110−
Origination Fee1 pts on $327,750
$3,278−
Closing Coststitle / appraisal / escrow
$6,555=
Cash Back to You
+$808Deal Summary
Cash to First Close
$34,251+
Holding Costs (2 mo)
$8,149+
Contingency Reserve
$2,185−
Cash Back at Refi
−$808=
Capital Left in Deal
$43,778Equity Position — Day 1 Post-Refi
ARV
$437,000−
DSCR Loan Balance
$327,750=
Equity in Property
$109,250 (25.0%)−
Capital Left in Deal
$43,778=
Value Created
$65,472$109,250 equity on $43,778 deployed = 2.5× equity leverage
Monthly Income & Expenses — Post-DSCR
Gross Rent
$2,680−
Property Taxes
$1,076−
Insurance
$277−
Maintenance (6% rent)
$161−
Management (6% rent)
$161−
HOA
$81=
OpEx Subtotal
$1,756=
Net Operating Income
$924−
DSCR P&I
$2,203/mo=
Net Cash Flow
−$1,279/moDSCR Ratios — Cash-Out vs No Cash-Out vs DSCR=1.0
Cash-Out Refi
75% of ARV — full LTV
Loan Amount$327,750
Monthly P&I$2,203/mo
Net Cash Flow−$1,279/mo
Cash Back at Refi+$808
DSCR
0.419x✗ Fail
Lender DSCR
0.737x✗ Fail
No Cash-Out
74.8% LTV — breakeven refi
Loan Amount$326,918
Monthly P&I$2,197/mo
Net Cash Flow−$1,273/mo
Cash Back at Refi+$0
DSCR
0.421x✗ Fail
Lender DSCR
0.738x✗ Fail
DSCR = 1.00x
31.5% LTV — still short $183,762
Loan Amount$137,472
Monthly P&I$924/mo
Net Cash Flow$0/mo
Cash Still Required−$183,762
DSCR
1.000x✗ Fail
Lender DSCR
1.136x✓ Pass
Required Rent by DSCR Target
| Target | Rent Needed | vs Current |
|---|---|---|
| 1.00x | $4,133/mo | +$1,453 needed |
| 1.10x | $4,383/mo | +$1,703 needed |
| 1.20x | $4,634/mo | +$1,954 needed |
| 1.30x ← | $4,884/mo | +$2,204 needed |
| 1.40x | $5,134/mo | +$2,454 needed |
Scenario 3 — Cash→DSCR
All-cash purchase → DSCR refi · 75% ARV · 7.1% / 30yr
❌
FAILS DSCR
Min 1.30x · 7.1% / 30-yr DSCR · 75% of ARV
0.419x
DSCR
Monthly Cash Flow
−$1,279/mo
Cash-on-Cash Yr 1
-43.4%
$35,327 left in deal
Acquisition Event — First Close
Purchase Price
$310,800+
Rehab Budget
$21,850+
Closing Costs5% of purchase
$15,540=
Total Cash to First Close
$348,190Holding Period — 2 Months
Property Taxes$1,076/mo × 2$2,153
Insurance$277/mo × 2$554
HOA$81/mo × 2$162
Total Holding Costs$2,869
Contingency Reserve10% of rehab — held, not at first close$2,185
DSCR Refinance — Second Close
DSCR Loan Proceeds75% of ARV · 7.1% / 30yr
$327,750−
Origination Fee1 pts on $327,750
$3,278−
Closing Coststitle / appraisal / escrow
$6,555=
Net Cash Recovered
$317,918Deal Summary
Total Cash to First Close
$348,190+
Holding Costs (2 mo)
$2,869+
Contingency Reserve
$2,185−
Net Cash Recovered at Refi
$317,918=
Capital Left in Deal
$35,327Equity Position — Day 1 Post-Refi
ARV
$437,000−
DSCR Loan Balance
$327,750=
Equity in Property
$109,250 (25.0%)−
Capital Left in Deal
$35,327=
Value Created
$73,923$109,250 equity on $35,327 deployed = 3.1× equity leverage
Monthly Income & Expenses — Post-DSCR
Gross Rent
$2,680−
Property Taxes
$1,076−
Insurance
$277−
Maintenance (6% rent)
$161−
Management (6% rent)
$161−
HOA
$81=
OpEx Subtotal
$1,756=
Net Operating Income
$924−
DSCR P&I
$2,203/mo=
Net Cash Flow
−$1,279/moDSCR Ratios — Cash-Out vs No Cash-Out
Cash-Out Refi
75% of ARV — full LTV
Loan Amount$327,750
Monthly P&I$2,203/mo
Net Cash Flow−$1,279/mo
Cash Still Required−$35,327
DSCR
0.419x✗ Fail
Lender DSCR
0.737x✗ Fail
No Cash-Out
75.0% LTV — capped short $35,327
Loan Amount$327,750
Monthly P&I$2,203/mo
Net Cash Flow−$1,279/mo
Cash Still Required−$35,327
DSCR
0.419x✗ Fail
Lender DSCR
0.737x✗ Fail
Required Rent by DSCR Target
| Target | Rent Needed | vs Current |
|---|---|---|
| 1.00x | $4,133/mo | +$1,453 needed |
| 1.10x | $4,383/mo | +$1,703 needed |
| 1.20x | $4,634/mo | +$1,954 needed |
| 1.30x ← | $4,884/mo | +$2,204 needed |
| 1.40x | $5,134/mo | +$2,454 needed |