1207 Cedar Creek Dr, Conroe, TX 77301
884 sqft · built 2015 · Single Family (SFR)Analyzed Oct 25, 2026MX Group Partner$
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Scenario 1 — Flip
Hard money loan · sell at ARV after rehab
✅
PASSES FLIP
Min 20% ROI · 6-mo hold
33.4%
Flip ROI
Cash to First Close
$13,000
what you bring day 1
Net Profit
$7,132
Max Bid @ 20%
$108,995
$7,132 profit ÷ $21,368 total invested = 33.4%
Acquisition Event — First Close
Hard Money Loan — 9.99% Interest-Only
Loan Amount
$107,250
Purchase (95% LTV)
$99,750
Rehab (100%)
$7,500
Loan-to-ARV
71.5%
Monthly Interest
$893/mo
Down Payment5% of $105,000 purchase
$5,250+
Origination Fee1 pts on $107,250 loan
$2,500+
Closing Costs5% of purchase
$5,250=
Cash to First Close
$13,000Holding Period — 6 Months
HML Interest9.99% IO · $893/mo × 6$5,357
Property Taxes$283/mo × 6$1,698
Insurance$94/mo × 6$563
Total Holding Costs$7,618
Contingency Reserve10% of rehab — held, not at first close$750
Sale Event — Second Close
Sale Price (ARV)
$150,000−
HML Principal Payofffull IO loan balance
$107,250−
Closing Costs3.5% of sale price
$5,250−
Realtor Commission6% of sale price
$9,000=
Net Proceeds to You
$28,500Deal Summary
Net Proceeds at Closing
$28,500−
Cash to First Close
$13,000−
Holding Costs (6 mo)
$7,618−
Contingency Reserve
$750=
NET PROFIT
$7,132Max Bid by ROI Target
| ROI | Max Bid | vs Offer |
|---|---|---|
| 10% | $110,820 | ✓ ok |
| 15% | $109,901 | ✓ ok |
| 20% ← | $108,995 | ✓ ok |
| 25% | $108,102 | ✓ ok |
| 30% | $107,221 | ✓ ok |
Scenario 2 — HM→DSCR
Hard money @ 9.99% IO → DSCR refi · 75% ARV · 7.1% / 30yr
❌
FAILS DSCR
Min 1.30x · 7.1% / 30-yr DSCR · 75% of ARV
0.763x
DSCR
Monthly Cash Flow
−$179/mo
Cash-on-Cash Yr 1
-14.9%
$14,414 left in deal
Acquisition Event — First Close
Hard Money Loan — 9.99% Interest-Only
Loan Amount
$107,250
Purchase (95% LTV)
$99,750
Rehab (100%)
$7,500
Loan-to-ARV
71.5%
Monthly Interest
$893/mo
Down Payment5% of $105,000 purchase
$5,250+
Origination Fee1 pts on $107,250 loan
$2,500+
Closing Costs5% of purchase
$5,250=
Cash to First Close
$13,000Holding Period — 2 Months
HML Interest9.99% IO · $893/mo × 2$1,786
Property Taxes$283/mo × 2$566
Insurance$94/mo × 2$188
Total Holding Costs$2,539
Contingency Reserve10% of rehab — held, not at first close$750
DSCR Refinance — Second Close
DSCR Loan Proceeds75% of ARV · 7.1% / 30yr
$112,500−
HML Principal Payofffull IO loan balance
$107,250−
Origination Fee1 pts on $112,500
$1,125−
Closing Coststitle / appraisal / escrow
$2,250=
Cash Back to You
+$1,875Deal Summary
Cash to First Close
$13,000+
Holding Costs (2 mo)
$2,539+
Contingency Reserve
$750−
Cash Back at Refi
−$1,875=
Capital Left in Deal
$14,414Equity Position — Day 1 Post-Refi
ARV
$150,000−
DSCR Loan Balance
$112,500=
Equity in Property
$37,500 (25.0%)−
Capital Left in Deal
$14,414=
Value Created
$23,086$37,500 equity on $14,414 deployed = 2.6× equity leverage
Monthly Income & Expenses — Post-DSCR
Gross Rent
$1,084−
Property Taxes
$283−
Insurance
$94−
Maintenance (6% rent)
$65−
Management (6% rent)
$65=
OpEx Subtotal
$507=
Net Operating Income
$577−
DSCR P&I
$756/mo=
Net Cash Flow
−$179/moDSCR Ratios — Cash-Out vs No Cash-Out vs DSCR=1.0
Cash-Out Refi
75% of ARV — full LTV
Loan Amount$112,500
Monthly P&I$756/mo
Net Cash Flow−$179/mo
Cash Back at Refi+$1,875
DSCR
0.763x✗ Fail
Lender DSCR
0.957x✗ Fail
No Cash-Out
73.7% LTV — breakeven refi
Loan Amount$110,567
Monthly P&I$743/mo
Net Cash Flow−$166/mo
Cash Back at Refi+$0
DSCR
0.777x✗ Fail
Lender DSCR
0.968x✗ Fail
DSCR = 1.00x
57.3% LTV — still short $23,942
Loan Amount$85,884
Monthly P&I$577/mo
Net Cash Flow$0/mo
Cash Still Required−$23,942
DSCR
1.000x✗ Fail
Lender DSCR
1.136x✓ Pass
Required Rent by DSCR Target
| Target | Rent Needed | vs Current |
|---|---|---|
| 1.00x | $1,287/mo | +$203 needed |
| 1.10x | $1,373/mo | +$289 needed |
| 1.20x | $1,459/mo | +$375 needed |
| 1.30x ← | $1,545/mo | +$461 needed |
| 1.40x | $1,631/mo | +$547 needed |
Scenario 3 — Cash→DSCR
All-cash purchase → DSCR refi · 75% ARV · 7.1% / 30yr
❌
FAILS DSCR
Min 1.30x · 7.1% / 30-yr DSCR · 75% of ARV
0.763x
DSCR
Monthly Cash Flow
−$179/mo
Cash-on-Cash Yr 1
-21.2%
$10,129 left in deal
Acquisition Event — First Close
Purchase Price
$105,000+
Rehab Budget
$7,500+
Closing Costs5% of purchase
$5,250=
Total Cash to First Close
$117,750Holding Period — 2 Months
Property Taxes$283/mo × 2$566
Insurance$94/mo × 2$188
Total Holding Costs$754
Contingency Reserve10% of rehab — held, not at first close$750
DSCR Refinance — Second Close
DSCR Loan Proceeds75% of ARV · 7.1% / 30yr
$112,500−
Origination Fee1 pts on $112,500
$1,125−
Closing Coststitle / appraisal / escrow
$2,250=
Net Cash Recovered
$109,125Deal Summary
Total Cash to First Close
$117,750+
Holding Costs (2 mo)
$754+
Contingency Reserve
$750−
Net Cash Recovered at Refi
$109,125=
Capital Left in Deal
$10,129Equity Position — Day 1 Post-Refi
ARV
$150,000−
DSCR Loan Balance
$112,500=
Equity in Property
$37,500 (25.0%)−
Capital Left in Deal
$10,129=
Value Created
$27,372$37,500 equity on $10,129 deployed = 3.7× equity leverage
Monthly Income & Expenses — Post-DSCR
Gross Rent
$1,084−
Property Taxes
$283−
Insurance
$94−
Maintenance (6% rent)
$65−
Management (6% rent)
$65=
OpEx Subtotal
$507=
Net Operating Income
$577−
DSCR P&I
$756/mo=
Net Cash Flow
−$179/moDSCR Ratios — Cash-Out vs No Cash-Out
Cash-Out Refi
75% of ARV — full LTV
Loan Amount$112,500
Monthly P&I$756/mo
Net Cash Flow−$179/mo
Cash Still Required−$10,129
DSCR
0.763x✗ Fail
Lender DSCR
0.957x✗ Fail
No Cash-Out
75.0% LTV — capped short $10,129
Loan Amount$112,500
Monthly P&I$756/mo
Net Cash Flow−$179/mo
Cash Still Required−$10,129
DSCR
0.763x✗ Fail
Lender DSCR
0.957x✗ Fail
Required Rent by DSCR Target
| Target | Rent Needed | vs Current |
|---|---|---|
| 1.00x | $1,287/mo | +$203 needed |
| 1.10x | $1,373/mo | +$289 needed |
| 1.20x | $1,459/mo | +$375 needed |
| 1.30x ← | $1,545/mo | +$461 needed |
| 1.40x | $1,631/mo | +$547 needed |