11360 Runnels Rd, Conroe, TX 77303
3bd / 1.5ba · 1,668 sqft · built 1974 · Single Family (SFR)Analyzed Oct 25, 2026MX Group Partner$
$
$
$
$
$
Scenario 1 — Flip
Hard money loan · sell at ARV after rehab
✅
PASSES FLIP
Min 20% ROI · 6-mo hold
95.1%
Flip ROI
Cash to First Close
$23,360
what you bring day 1
Net Profit
$35,508
Max Bid @ 20%
$233,478
$35,508 profit ÷ $37,357 total invested = 95.1%
Acquisition Event — First Close
Hard Money Loan — 9.99% Interest-Only
Loan Amount
$214,020
Purchase (95% LTV)
$198,170
Rehab (100%)
$15,850
Loan-to-ARV
67.5%
Monthly Interest
$1,782/mo
Down Payment5% of $208,600 purchase
$10,430+
Origination Fee1 pts on $214,020 loan
$2,500+
Closing Costs5% of purchase
$10,430=
Cash to First Close
$23,360Holding Period — 6 Months
HML Interest9.99% IO · $1,782/mo × 6$10,690
Property Taxes$100/mo × 6$599
Insurance$187/mo × 6$1,122
Total Holding Costs$12,412
Contingency Reserve10% of rehab — held, not at first close$1,585
Sale Event — Second Close
Sale Price (ARV)
$317,000−
HML Principal Payofffull IO loan balance
$214,020−
Closing Costs3.5% of sale price
$11,095−
Realtor Commission6% of sale price
$19,020=
Net Proceeds to You
$72,865Deal Summary
Net Proceeds at Closing
$72,865−
Cash to First Close
$23,360−
Holding Costs (6 mo)
$12,412−
Contingency Reserve
$1,585=
NET PROFIT
$35,508Max Bid by ROI Target
| ROI | Max Bid | vs Offer |
|---|---|---|
| 10% | $237,115 | ✓ ok |
| 15% | $235,283 | ✓ ok |
| 20% ← | $233,478 | ✓ ok |
| 25% | $231,698 | ✓ ok |
| 30% | $229,943 | ✓ ok |
Scenario 2 — HM→DSCR
Hard money @ 9.99% IO → DSCR refi · 75% ARV · 7.1% / 30yr
❌
FAILS DSCR
Min 1.30x · 7.1% / 30-yr DSCR · 75% of ARV
0.658x
DSCR
Monthly Cash Flow
−$547/mo
Cash-on-Cash Yr 1
-52.6%
$12,485 left in deal
Acquisition Event — First Close
Hard Money Loan — 9.99% Interest-Only
Loan Amount
$214,020
Purchase (95% LTV)
$198,170
Rehab (100%)
$15,850
Loan-to-ARV
67.5%
Monthly Interest
$1,782/mo
Down Payment5% of $208,600 purchase
$10,430+
Origination Fee1 pts on $214,020 loan
$2,500+
Closing Costs5% of purchase
$10,430=
Cash to First Close
$23,360Holding Period — 2 Months
HML Interest9.99% IO · $1,782/mo × 2$3,563
Property Taxes$100/mo × 2$200
Insurance$187/mo × 2$374
Total Holding Costs$4,137
Contingency Reserve10% of rehab — held, not at first close$1,585
DSCR Refinance — Second Close
DSCR Loan Proceeds75% of ARV · 7.1% / 30yr
$237,750−
HML Principal Payofffull IO loan balance
$214,020−
Origination Fee1 pts on $237,750
$2,378−
Closing Coststitle / appraisal / escrow
$4,755=
Cash Back to You
+$16,598Deal Summary
Cash to First Close
$23,360+
Holding Costs (2 mo)
$4,137+
Contingency Reserve
$1,585−
Cash Back at Refi
−$16,598=
Capital Left in Deal
$12,485Equity Position — Day 1 Post-Refi
ARV
$317,000−
DSCR Loan Balance
$237,750=
Equity in Property
$79,250 (25.0%)−
Capital Left in Deal
$12,485=
Value Created
$66,765$79,250 equity on $12,485 deployed = 6.3× equity leverage
Monthly Income & Expenses — Post-DSCR
Gross Rent
$1,520−
Property Taxes
$100−
Insurance
$187−
Maintenance (6% rent)
$91−
Management (6% rent)
$91=
OpEx Subtotal
$469=
Net Operating Income
$1,051−
DSCR P&I
$1,598/mo=
Net Cash Flow
−$547/moDSCR Ratios — Cash-Out vs No Cash-Out vs DSCR=1.0
Cash-Out Refi
75% of ARV — full LTV
Loan Amount$237,750
Monthly P&I$1,598/mo
Net Cash Flow−$547/mo
Cash Back at Refi+$16,598
DSCR
0.658x✗ Fail
Lender DSCR
0.807x✗ Fail
No Cash-Out
69.6% LTV — breakeven refi
Loan Amount$220,639
Monthly P&I$1,483/mo
Net Cash Flow−$432/mo
Cash Back at Refi+$0
DSCR
0.709x✗ Fail
Lender DSCR
0.859x✗ Fail
DSCR = 1.00x
49.3% LTV — still short $62,360
Loan Amount$156,350
Monthly P&I$1,051/mo
Net Cash Flow$0/mo
Cash Still Required−$62,360
DSCR
1.000x✗ Fail
Lender DSCR
1.136x✓ Pass
Required Rent by DSCR Target
| Target | Rent Needed | vs Current |
|---|---|---|
| 1.00x | $2,142/mo | +$622 needed |
| 1.10x | $2,323/mo | +$803 needed |
| 1.20x | $2,505/mo | +$985 needed |
| 1.30x ← | $2,686/mo | +$1,166 needed |
| 1.40x | $2,868/mo | +$1,348 needed |
Scenario 3 — Cash→DSCR
All-cash purchase → DSCR refi · 75% ARV · 7.1% / 30yr
❌
FAILS DSCR
Min 1.30x · 7.1% / 30-yr DSCR · 75% of ARV
0.658x
DSCR
Monthly Cash Flow
−$547/mo
Cash-on-Cash Yr 1
-102.2%
$6,421 left in deal
Acquisition Event — First Close
Purchase Price
$208,600+
Rehab Budget
$15,850+
Closing Costs5% of purchase
$10,430=
Total Cash to First Close
$234,880Holding Period — 2 Months
Property Taxes$100/mo × 2$200
Insurance$187/mo × 2$374
Total Holding Costs$574
Contingency Reserve10% of rehab — held, not at first close$1,585
DSCR Refinance — Second Close
DSCR Loan Proceeds75% of ARV · 7.1% / 30yr
$237,750−
Origination Fee1 pts on $237,750
$2,378−
Closing Coststitle / appraisal / escrow
$4,755=
Net Cash Recovered
$230,618Deal Summary
Total Cash to First Close
$234,880+
Holding Costs (2 mo)
$574+
Contingency Reserve
$1,585−
Net Cash Recovered at Refi
$230,618=
Capital Left in Deal
$6,421Equity Position — Day 1 Post-Refi
ARV
$317,000−
DSCR Loan Balance
$237,750=
Equity in Property
$79,250 (25.0%)−
Capital Left in Deal
$6,421=
Value Created
$72,829$79,250 equity on $6,421 deployed = 12.3× equity leverage
Monthly Income & Expenses — Post-DSCR
Gross Rent
$1,520−
Property Taxes
$100−
Insurance
$187−
Maintenance (6% rent)
$91−
Management (6% rent)
$91=
OpEx Subtotal
$469=
Net Operating Income
$1,051−
DSCR P&I
$1,598/mo=
Net Cash Flow
−$547/moDSCR Ratios — Cash-Out vs No Cash-Out
Cash-Out Refi
75% of ARV — full LTV
Loan Amount$237,750
Monthly P&I$1,598/mo
Net Cash Flow−$547/mo
Cash Still Required−$6,421
DSCR
0.658x✗ Fail
Lender DSCR
0.807x✗ Fail
No Cash-Out
75.0% LTV — capped short $6,421
Loan Amount$237,750
Monthly P&I$1,598/mo
Net Cash Flow−$547/mo
Cash Still Required−$6,421
DSCR
0.658x✗ Fail
Lender DSCR
0.807x✗ Fail
Required Rent by DSCR Target
| Target | Rent Needed | vs Current |
|---|---|---|
| 1.00x | $2,142/mo | +$622 needed |
| 1.10x | $2,323/mo | +$803 needed |
| 1.20x | $2,505/mo | +$985 needed |
| 1.30x ← | $2,686/mo | +$1,166 needed |
| 1.40x | $2,868/mo | +$1,348 needed |