10307 Ash Fork Dr, Houston, TX 77064
3bd / 2.5ba · 2,538 sqft · built 1990 · Single Family (SFR)Analyzed Oct 25, 2026MX Group Partner$
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Scenario 1 — Flip
Hard money loan · sell at ARV after rehab
✅
PASSES FLIP
Min 20% ROI · 6-mo hold
24.0%
Flip ROI
Cash to First Close
$24,830
what you bring day 1
Net Profit
$9,895
Max Bid @ 20%
$224,962
$9,895 profit ÷ $41,310 total invested = 24.0%
Acquisition Event — First Close
Hard Money Loan — 9.99% Interest-Only
Loan Amount
$227,535
Purchase (95% LTV)
$212,135
Rehab (100%)
$15,400
Loan-to-ARV
73.9%
Monthly Interest
$1,894/mo
Down Payment5% of $223,300 purchase
$11,165+
Origination Fee1 pts on $227,535 loan
$2,500+
Closing Costs5% of purchase
$11,165=
Cash to First Close
$24,830Holding Period — 6 Months
HML Interest9.99% IO · $1,894/mo × 6$11,365
Property Taxes$367/mo × 6$2,202
Insurance$199/mo × 6$1,194
HOA$30/mo × 6$180
Total Holding Costs$14,940
Contingency Reserve10% of rehab — held, not at first close$1,540
Sale Event — Second Close
Sale Price (ARV)
$308,000−
HML Principal Payofffull IO loan balance
$227,535−
Closing Costs3.5% of sale price
$10,780−
Realtor Commission6% of sale price
$18,480=
Net Proceeds to You
$51,205Deal Summary
Net Proceeds at Closing
$51,205−
Cash to First Close
$24,830−
Holding Costs (6 mo)
$14,940−
Contingency Reserve
$1,540=
NET PROFIT
$9,895Max Bid by ROI Target
| ROI | Max Bid | vs Offer |
|---|---|---|
| 10% | $228,628 | ✓ ok |
| 15% | $226,782 | ✓ ok |
| 20% ← | $224,962 | ✓ ok |
| 25% | $223,168 | −$132 |
| 30% | $221,399 | −$1,901 |
Scenario 2 — HM→DSCR
Hard money @ 9.99% IO → DSCR refi · 75% ARV · 7.1% / 30yr
❌
FAILS DSCR
Min 1.30x · 7.1% / 30-yr DSCR · 75% of ARV
0.871x
DSCR
Monthly Cash Flow
−$200/mo
Cash-on-Cash Yr 1
-6.9%
$34,815 left in deal
Acquisition Event — First Close
Hard Money Loan — 9.99% Interest-Only
Loan Amount
$227,535
Purchase (95% LTV)
$212,135
Rehab (100%)
$15,400
Loan-to-ARV
73.9%
Monthly Interest
$1,894/mo
Down Payment5% of $223,300 purchase
$11,165+
Origination Fee1 pts on $227,535 loan
$2,500+
Closing Costs5% of purchase
$11,165=
Cash to First Close
$24,830Holding Period — 2 Months
HML Interest9.99% IO · $1,894/mo × 2$3,788
Property Taxes$367/mo × 2$734
Insurance$199/mo × 2$398
HOA$30/mo × 2$60
Total Holding Costs$4,980
Contingency Reserve10% of rehab — held, not at first close$1,540
DSCR Refinance — Second Close
DSCR Loan Proceeds75% of ARV · 7.1% / 30yr
$231,000−
HML Principal Payofffull IO loan balance
$227,535−
Origination Fee1 pts on $231,000
$2,310−
Closing Coststitle / appraisal / escrow
$4,620=
Cash to Bring to Close
−$3,465Deal Summary
Cash to First Close
$24,830+
Holding Costs (2 mo)
$4,980+
Contingency Reserve
$1,540−
Cash to Bring at Refi
+$3,465=
Capital Left in Deal
$34,815Equity Position — Day 1 Post-Refi
ARV
$308,000−
DSCR Loan Balance
$231,000=
Equity in Property
$77,000 (25.0%)−
Capital Left in Deal
$34,815=
Value Created
$42,185$77,000 equity on $34,815 deployed = 2.2× equity leverage
Monthly Income & Expenses — Post-DSCR
Gross Rent
$2,214−
Property Taxes
$367−
Insurance
$199−
Maintenance (6% rent)
$133−
Management (6% rent)
$133−
HOA
$30=
OpEx Subtotal
$862=
Net Operating Income
$1,352−
DSCR P&I
$1,552/mo=
Net Cash Flow
−$200/moDSCR Ratios — Cash-Out vs No Cash-Out vs DSCR=1.0
Cash-Out Refi
75% of ARV — full LTV
Loan Amount$231,000
Monthly P&I$1,552/mo
Net Cash Flow−$200/mo
Cash Still Required−$3,465
DSCR
0.871x✗ Fail
Lender DSCR
1.031x✓ Pass
No Cash-Out
75.0% LTV — capped short $3,465
Loan Amount$231,000
Monthly P&I$1,552/mo
Net Cash Flow−$200/mo
Cash Still Required−$3,465
DSCR
0.871x✗ Fail
Lender DSCR
1.031x✓ Pass
DSCR = 1.00x
65.3% LTV — still short $32,319
Loan Amount$201,253
Monthly P&I$1,352/mo
Net Cash Flow$0/mo
Cash Still Required−$32,319
DSCR
1.000x✗ Fail
Lender DSCR
1.136x✓ Pass
Required Rent by DSCR Target
| Target | Rent Needed | vs Current |
|---|---|---|
| 1.00x | $2,441/mo | +$227 needed |
| 1.10x | $2,618/mo | +$404 needed |
| 1.20x | $2,794/mo | +$580 needed |
| 1.30x ← | $2,970/mo | +$756 needed |
| 1.40x | $3,147/mo | +$933 needed |
Scenario 3 — Cash→DSCR
All-cash purchase → DSCR refi · 75% ARV · 7.1% / 30yr
❌
FAILS DSCR
Min 1.30x · 7.1% / 30-yr DSCR · 75% of ARV
0.871x
DSCR
Monthly Cash Flow
−$200/mo
Cash-on-Cash Yr 1
-8.4%
$28,527 left in deal
Acquisition Event — First Close
Purchase Price
$223,300+
Rehab Budget
$15,400+
Closing Costs5% of purchase
$11,165=
Total Cash to First Close
$249,865Holding Period — 2 Months
Property Taxes$367/mo × 2$734
Insurance$199/mo × 2$398
HOA$30/mo × 2$60
Total Holding Costs$1,192
Contingency Reserve10% of rehab — held, not at first close$1,540
DSCR Refinance — Second Close
DSCR Loan Proceeds75% of ARV · 7.1% / 30yr
$231,000−
Origination Fee1 pts on $231,000
$2,310−
Closing Coststitle / appraisal / escrow
$4,620=
Net Cash Recovered
$224,070Deal Summary
Total Cash to First Close
$249,865+
Holding Costs (2 mo)
$1,192+
Contingency Reserve
$1,540−
Net Cash Recovered at Refi
$224,070=
Capital Left in Deal
$28,527Equity Position — Day 1 Post-Refi
ARV
$308,000−
DSCR Loan Balance
$231,000=
Equity in Property
$77,000 (25.0%)−
Capital Left in Deal
$28,527=
Value Created
$48,473$77,000 equity on $28,527 deployed = 2.7× equity leverage
Monthly Income & Expenses — Post-DSCR
Gross Rent
$2,214−
Property Taxes
$367−
Insurance
$199−
Maintenance (6% rent)
$133−
Management (6% rent)
$133−
HOA
$30=
OpEx Subtotal
$862=
Net Operating Income
$1,352−
DSCR P&I
$1,552/mo=
Net Cash Flow
−$200/moDSCR Ratios — Cash-Out vs No Cash-Out
Cash-Out Refi
75% of ARV — full LTV
Loan Amount$231,000
Monthly P&I$1,552/mo
Net Cash Flow−$200/mo
Cash Still Required−$28,527
DSCR
0.871x✗ Fail
Lender DSCR
1.031x✓ Pass
No Cash-Out
75.0% LTV — capped short $28,527
Loan Amount$231,000
Monthly P&I$1,552/mo
Net Cash Flow−$200/mo
Cash Still Required−$28,527
DSCR
0.871x✗ Fail
Lender DSCR
1.031x✓ Pass
Required Rent by DSCR Target
| Target | Rent Needed | vs Current |
|---|---|---|
| 1.00x | $2,441/mo | +$227 needed |
| 1.10x | $2,618/mo | +$404 needed |
| 1.20x | $2,794/mo | +$580 needed |
| 1.30x ← | $2,970/mo | +$756 needed |
| 1.40x | $3,147/mo | +$933 needed |