10030 Lost Pine Dr, Baytown, TX 77521
5bd / 3ba · 2,346 sqft · built 1978 · Single Family (SFR)Analyzed Oct 25, 2026MX Group Partner$
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Scenario 1 — Flip
Hard money loan · sell at ARV after rehab
❌
FAILS FLIP
Min 20% ROI · 6-mo hold
3.7%
Flip ROI
Cash to First Close
$25,320
what you bring day 1
Net Profit
$1,615
Max Bid @ 20%
$222,094
$1,615 profit ÷ $44,080 total invested = 3.7%
Acquisition Event — First Close
Hard Money Loan — 9.99% Interest-Only
Loan Amount
$232,140
Purchase (95% LTV)
$216,790
Rehab (100%)
$15,350
Loan-to-ARV
75.6%
Monthly Interest
$1,933/mo
Down Payment5% of $228,200 purchase
$11,410+
Origination Fee1 pts on $232,140 loan
$2,500+
Closing Costs5% of purchase
$11,410=
Cash to First Close
$25,320Holding Period — 6 Months
HML Interest9.99% IO · $1,933/mo × 6$11,595
Property Taxes$727/mo × 6$4,364
Insurance$203/mo × 6$1,218
HOA$8/mo × 6$48
Total Holding Costs$17,225
Contingency Reserve10% of rehab — held, not at first close$1,535
Sale Event — Second Close
Sale Price (ARV)
$307,000−
HML Principal Payofffull IO loan balance
$232,140−
Closing Costs3.5% of sale price
$10,745−
Realtor Commission6% of sale price
$18,420=
Net Proceeds to You
$45,695Deal Summary
Net Proceeds at Closing
$45,695−
Cash to First Close
$25,320−
Holding Costs (6 mo)
$17,225−
Contingency Reserve
$1,535=
NET PROFIT
$1,615Max Bid by ROI Target
| ROI | Max Bid | vs Offer |
|---|---|---|
| 10% | $225,898 | −$2,302 |
| 15% | $223,983 | −$4,217 |
| 20% ← | $222,094 | −$6,106 |
| 25% | $220,233 | −$7,967 |
| 30% | $218,397 | −$9,803 |
Scenario 2 — HM→DSCR
Hard money @ 9.99% IO → DSCR refi · 75% ARV · 7.1% / 30yr
❌
FAILS DSCR
Min 1.30x · 7.1% / 30-yr DSCR · 75% of ARV
0.614x
DSCR
Monthly Cash Flow
−$597/mo
Cash-on-Cash Yr 1
-17.3%
$41,394 left in deal
Acquisition Event — First Close
Hard Money Loan — 9.99% Interest-Only
Loan Amount
$232,140
Purchase (95% LTV)
$216,790
Rehab (100%)
$15,350
Loan-to-ARV
75.6%
Monthly Interest
$1,933/mo
Down Payment5% of $228,200 purchase
$11,410+
Origination Fee1 pts on $232,140 loan
$2,500+
Closing Costs5% of purchase
$11,410=
Cash to First Close
$25,320Holding Period — 2 Months
HML Interest9.99% IO · $1,933/mo × 2$3,865
Property Taxes$727/mo × 2$1,455
Insurance$203/mo × 2$406
HOA$8/mo × 2$16
Total Holding Costs$5,742
Contingency Reserve10% of rehab — held, not at first close$1,535
DSCR Refinance — Second Close
DSCR Loan Proceeds75% of ARV · 7.1% / 30yr
$230,250−
HML Principal Payofffull IO loan balance
$232,140−
Origination Fee1 pts on $230,250
$2,303−
Closing Coststitle / appraisal / escrow
$4,605=
Cash to Bring to Close
−$8,798Deal Summary
Cash to First Close
$25,320+
Holding Costs (2 mo)
$5,742+
Contingency Reserve
$1,535−
Cash to Bring at Refi
+$8,798=
Capital Left in Deal
$41,394Equity Position — Day 1 Post-Refi
ARV
$307,000−
DSCR Loan Balance
$230,250=
Equity in Property
$76,750 (25.0%)−
Capital Left in Deal
$41,394=
Value Created
$35,356$76,750 equity on $41,394 deployed = 1.9× equity leverage
Monthly Income & Expenses — Post-DSCR
Gross Rent
$2,146−
Property Taxes
$727−
Insurance
$203−
Maintenance (6% rent)
$129−
Management (6% rent)
$129−
HOA
$8=
OpEx Subtotal
$1,196=
Net Operating Income
$950−
DSCR P&I
$1,547/mo=
Net Cash Flow
−$597/moDSCR Ratios — Cash-Out vs No Cash-Out vs DSCR=1.0
Cash-Out Refi
75% of ARV — full LTV
Loan Amount$230,250
Monthly P&I$1,547/mo
Net Cash Flow−$597/mo
Cash Still Required−$8,798
DSCR
0.614x✗ Fail
Lender DSCR
0.863x✗ Fail
No Cash-Out
75.0% LTV — capped short $8,798
Loan Amount$230,250
Monthly P&I$1,547/mo
Net Cash Flow−$597/mo
Cash Still Required−$8,798
DSCR
0.614x✗ Fail
Lender DSCR
0.863x✗ Fail
DSCR = 1.00x
46.1% LTV — still short $94,991
Loan Amount$141,390
Monthly P&I$950/mo
Net Cash Flow$0/mo
Cash Still Required−$94,991
DSCR
1.000x✗ Fail
Lender DSCR
1.136x✓ Pass
Required Rent by DSCR Target
| Target | Rent Needed | vs Current |
|---|---|---|
| 1.00x | $2,825/mo | +$679 needed |
| 1.10x | $3,000/mo | +$854 needed |
| 1.20x | $3,176/mo | +$1,030 needed |
| 1.30x ← | $3,352/mo | +$1,206 needed |
| 1.40x | $3,528/mo | +$1,382 needed |
Scenario 3 — Cash→DSCR
All-cash purchase → DSCR refi · 75% ARV · 7.1% / 30yr
❌
FAILS DSCR
Min 1.30x · 7.1% / 30-yr DSCR · 75% of ARV
0.614x
DSCR
Monthly Cash Flow
−$597/mo
Cash-on-Cash Yr 1
-20.5%
$35,029 left in deal
Acquisition Event — First Close
Purchase Price
$228,200+
Rehab Budget
$15,350+
Closing Costs5% of purchase
$11,410=
Total Cash to First Close
$254,960Holding Period — 2 Months
Property Taxes$727/mo × 2$1,455
Insurance$203/mo × 2$406
HOA$8/mo × 2$16
Total Holding Costs$1,877
Contingency Reserve10% of rehab — held, not at first close$1,535
DSCR Refinance — Second Close
DSCR Loan Proceeds75% of ARV · 7.1% / 30yr
$230,250−
Origination Fee1 pts on $230,250
$2,303−
Closing Coststitle / appraisal / escrow
$4,605=
Net Cash Recovered
$223,343Deal Summary
Total Cash to First Close
$254,960+
Holding Costs (2 mo)
$1,877+
Contingency Reserve
$1,535−
Net Cash Recovered at Refi
$223,343=
Capital Left in Deal
$35,029Equity Position — Day 1 Post-Refi
ARV
$307,000−
DSCR Loan Balance
$230,250=
Equity in Property
$76,750 (25.0%)−
Capital Left in Deal
$35,029=
Value Created
$41,721$76,750 equity on $35,029 deployed = 2.2× equity leverage
Monthly Income & Expenses — Post-DSCR
Gross Rent
$2,146−
Property Taxes
$727−
Insurance
$203−
Maintenance (6% rent)
$129−
Management (6% rent)
$129−
HOA
$8=
OpEx Subtotal
$1,196=
Net Operating Income
$950−
DSCR P&I
$1,547/mo=
Net Cash Flow
−$597/moDSCR Ratios — Cash-Out vs No Cash-Out
Cash-Out Refi
75% of ARV — full LTV
Loan Amount$230,250
Monthly P&I$1,547/mo
Net Cash Flow−$597/mo
Cash Still Required−$35,029
DSCR
0.614x✗ Fail
Lender DSCR
0.863x✗ Fail
No Cash-Out
75.0% LTV — capped short $35,029
Loan Amount$230,250
Monthly P&I$1,547/mo
Net Cash Flow−$597/mo
Cash Still Required−$35,029
DSCR
0.614x✗ Fail
Lender DSCR
0.863x✗ Fail
Required Rent by DSCR Target
| Target | Rent Needed | vs Current |
|---|---|---|
| 1.00x | $2,825/mo | +$679 needed |
| 1.10x | $3,000/mo | +$854 needed |
| 1.20x | $3,176/mo | +$1,030 needed |
| 1.30x ← | $3,352/mo | +$1,206 needed |
| 1.40x | $3,528/mo | +$1,382 needed |